interview
In an interview with CH Media, renowned military expert Carlo Masala explains why the US’s apparent lack of plans in Iran is extremely dangerous and why Europe has to prepare for more than just rising oil prices.
March 7, 2026, 10:10March 7, 2026, 10:10
U.S. Navy sailors load ammunition on the flight deck of an aircraft carrier Friday, Feb. 27, 2026.Image: keystone
Whether in South America, the Caribbean or the Middle East – the news situation couldn’t be more chaotic. There is currently one man behind most of the fires: Donald Trump. His war in Iran has now been going on for a week. On Friday, Israeli warplanes bombed targets in Tehran and Beirut as Iran continued its retaliatory attacks on states in the region.
In an interview, military expert Carlo Masala explains what the biggest problem of the new war is, why the mullahs’ regime could be more stable than many hope, and why Europe must prepare for unpleasant consequences.
A week ago Donald Trump attacked Iran. What goal does he pursue with the war?
Carlo Masala: We don’t know because he basically changes his ideas with every statement. After the first wave of airstrikes, he said there were three objectives: destroying the nuclear program – which he admitted he did not destroy in June – destroying the ballistic missile program and creating the conditions for regime change. He then gradually moved away from this regime change. He said he could live with a “friendly” mullah. So it would depend on how the Iranian leadership chooses now. The US President also spoke positively yesterday about possible support for Kurdish Iranians who could play a role in the war. Ultimately, he constantly changes the objective. And it actually makes it clear that there is no goal at all, that you are not clear about the goal.
How problematic is that?
In general, you should never use the military unless you have a clearly defined political goal that you want to achieve. Can things still turn out well for the Iranian population? Theoretically yes. The fact that it can be overthrown from within can still happen. But at the moment it doesn’t look like the regime is really that weakened.
Carlo Masala is Professor of International Politics at the University of the Bundeswehr.Image: www.imago-images.de
How do you recognize that?
On the regime’s ability to operate militarily, on their ability to still choose a successor, and on the lack of mass protests. People tend to sit in their houses because they are either in regions where there are bombings – I wouldn’t go out on the streets there either – or they are simply waiting to see what happens.
Donald Trump said this week that the worst-case scenario would be if Ayatollah Khamenei was succeeded by someone worse than him. The current favorite for the successor post is Khamenei’s son – a hardliner – has the worst case scenario occurred?
Trump said yesterday that he doesn’t like this man at all and he insists that he will be involved in the election of a successor, so to speak, which is crazy. But I can’t say anything about internal Iranian matters.
The Americans are hoping for support from armed Kurdish groups. How helpful can these be in the fight against the mullahs’ regime?
According to estimates, we are talking about 3,000 to 5,000 potentially armed people in a huge country. It should not be forgotten that the regime has more than a million people under arms: the Revolutionary Guards, militias and the army. They all have something to lose because they fear losing their position or ending up in court if there is a regime change. This is opposed by the few thousand Kurds. This is not a good starting situation. But we also know with Trump that he could end the operation tomorrow and declare it a victory.
The Iranians are currently expanding the war. Turkey, a NATO country, fired a missile this week. What consequences could the war have for Europe?
The probability that people will flee Iran is relatively high. Of course, Europe could then be one of the goals. In addition, Iran is threatening, as it has in the past, to activate so-called sleeper cells. Apparently they have them everywhere. I can’t tell you if the sleeper cells actually exist, but that’s what the security services are responding to right now. European NATO commandos, for example, have instructed their employees not to walk around in uniform outside the barracks area.
Trump’s attention is no longer exclusively on Iran. This week he sent a commando to Ecuador and again spoke of regime change in Cuba. Does the island state now have to prepare for a large-scale US intervention?
We don’t know that. In Cuba, however, an operation with limited special forces is more likely. Probably with opposition politicians or parts of the regime. I don’t think we will see a large-scale military operation in Cuba.
Why not?
You have to say this quite simply: What the USA is currently shooting in the Persian Gulf is of course a problem. You don’t have unlimited ammo available. The stocks of interceptors for air defense and missiles in particular are being depleted.
Could Americans be running out of weapons?
Well, it’s being resupplied, but it’s not like the US has an infinite supply to simply carry out the same type of operation for months and in several places.
The Americans have asked Ukraine for help with drone defense. Should they have prepared better?
The problem is that they can intercept all ballistic missiles relatively well. We see this throughout the region. The launch rate of some ballistic missiles is over 90 percent. At the same time, most of them do not have enough drone defense systems. This is a failure of everyone, including the Europeans. When we discuss how we arm ourselves, the question of drone defense is one of the most pressing questions because we see how effective the use of drones can be. (aargauerzeitung.ch)