After four years of war, there is a lot of news about the Ukrainian soldier shortage. Russia is also facing a dilemma that could potentially be decisive for the war.
Feb 24, 2026, 12:53 p.mFeb 24, 2026, 12:53 p.m
Four years after the attack on Ukraine, the war of attrition could be decided on a sober key figure: the ratio between those killed and those who are permanently disabled. Behind these statistics lies the key strategic question: Is Russia’s army shrinking? Or does it continue to grow despite enormous losses?
Not enough volunteers anymore: On “Defenders of the Fatherland” Day, these Russian children in Krasnogorsk (near Moscow) are taught how to use weapons.Image: Getty Images
US military analyst Sasho Todorov quantifies Russian losses using its own databases and external sources such as obituaries. In 2025, he expects 140,000 to 175,000 deaths – an average of 11,500 to 14,500 per month.
According to Moscow, this compares to around 33,000 new volunteers per month. At first glance, Russia is more than making up for its losses. But according to Todorov, this calculation falls short.
There’s been a lot of talk lately about Ukrainian goals for casualty infliction on the Russians, so I think it’s a good moment to talk about permanent losses, what we know about them, what we don’t know about them, and why the latter matters so much. A long thread:
— Sasho Todorov (@SashoTodorov1) February 22, 2026
As cynical as this calculation may sound, in a war of attrition it is not just the dead that count, but the “permanent losses” – i.e. the fallen plus those missing and wounded who are no longer fit for action. In 2022 the ratio on both sides was four wounded to one killed. Now it seems to be more like 2:1. This suggests that more wounded people are dying or are not even being medically registered. At the same time, the number of serious injuries – such as amputations – is exceptionally high.
Depending on the assumption, different scenarios arise: conservatively, Moscow records 20,000 to 26,000 permanent losses per month. Conversely, that would mean: Putin’s army continues to grow even without forced mobilization. If you calculate more aggressively, there are 30,000 to 38,000 – Russia’s troops are stagnating or even shrinking.
According to Todorov, there are also factors that do not appear in any frontline statistics: The median age of Russian soldiers is a very high 41 years, and a quarter are even older than 47. Many recruits come from structurally weak regions with inadequate health care. Absences from illness, contract terminations or non-combat-related injuries are likely to further reduce the effective troop strength.
Crucial turning point: Putin’s position is crumbling
In an interview on Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia is currently losing up to 35,000 soldiers per month. Moscow can no longer replace 8,000 to 10,000 of them. “We have calculated that Russia will have to pay for every kilometer it advances with 157 soldiers killed.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.Image: DPA
This information cannot be independently verified. However, Western think tanks arrive at similar figures. In a study from the end of January, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) speaks of “unprecedented losses since the Second World War” and describes Russia as a “power in decline”. The Washington-based center estimates the total number of Russian soldiers killed since February 2022 at 325,000; Including the wounded and missing, the losses totaled around 1.2 million. The authors assume there will be 600,000 failures in Ukraine, including up to 140,000 deaths.
In a commentary for the New York Post, Christina Harward from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) paints a picture of a Kremlin chief who portrays himself as an inevitable victor compared to the West, although in reality his position is crumbling. His army is at a crucial turning point.
For the analyst, it is clear that in 2026 Putin will no longer be able to recruit enough new volunteers through the previously successful bonus system to compensate for the horrendous losses. Consequently, he could only win the war militarily if he carried out a new, unpopular forced mobilization. However, the first and so far only such measure led to the panicked departure of hundreds of thousands of young Russians in 2022. (aargauerzeitung.ch)