Only about four percent of the tariff burden was borne by foreign exporters, while 96 percent was passed on to US buyers.Image: keystone
January 19, 2026, 12:39 p.mJanuary 19, 2026, 12:39 p.m
The US punitive tariffs do not burden foreign exporters, but the American economy itself. This is shown by a study by Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel). The economic researchers analyzed over 25 million shipping records representing a total value of nearly $4 trillion in U.S. imports.
The results are clear: US customs revenue increased by around $200 billion last year. But only about four percent of the tariff burden was borne by foreign exporters, while 96 percent was passed on to US buyers. At the same time, trade volumes collapsed without export prices falling.
“The tariffs are an own goal,” says Julian Hinz, research director at the IfW and co-author of the study. “The claim that foreign states bear these tariffs is a myth.” The tariffs made imported goods more expensive like a consumption tax and at the same time reduced the variety and quantity of available goods.
The study also examined the tariff increases against Brazil and India in August 2025. The tariffs for Brazil rose to 50 percent and for India from 25 to 50 percent. According to IfW, the data shows that foreign exporters did not subsequently reduce their prices to cushion the additional tariffs.
Hinz: Tariffs bring long-term disadvantages for everyone
A comparison of Indian exports to the USA with deliveries to Europe or Canada also shows a clear pattern. Hinz explains: “Export value and quantity to America fell significantly, by up to 24 percent. But unit prices – the prices charged by Indian exporters – remained unchanged.” This means that less is delivered, but not cheaper.
The bottom line, the study found, is that US companies will face declining margins and consumers will face higher prices in the long term. At the same time, export-oriented countries, with a focus on the USA, were selling less and were under pressure to open up new markets. “The tariffs bring long-term disadvantages for everyone,” emphasized study co-author Hinz. (sda/awp/dpa)