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analysis
With the agreement between the USA and Iran, Israel’s dreams of becoming a major power in the Middle East are once again shattered.
June 16, 2026, 12:55 p.mJune 16, 2026, 12:55 p.m
In the summer of 1982, then-Israeli Defense Minister Ariel Sharon ordered an attack on the Palestinian refugee camp in Beirut. It became a massacre in which more than 3,000 people were killed, mostly women and children. Ostensibly, this attack was justified as a way to put an end to the PLO’s terrorist attacks. Ronen Bergman, an Israeli journalist, describes what it was really about in his book “Rise and Kill First”:
“Together with his chief of staff Rafael Eitan, he (Sharon) had a secret agenda that was far more grandiose. He wanted to use the Israeli army’s tanks to reorganize the Middle East. In his vision, the Israelis and their allied Phalangists (the Christian militias) would conquer Lebanon, destroy the PLO, and inflict severe damage on the Syrian forces stationed in Lebanon. After the conquest of Beirut, Bashir Gemayel, the leader of the Phalangists (an extremely brutal man, author’s note), would be installed as president and Lebanon would be transformed into a loyal ally. Gemayel would then drive the Palestinians to Jordan, where they would soon be in the majority and could establish their own state. That – according to Sharon’s thinking – would make the desire for a separate Palestinian state in Judea and Samaria – the West Bank – superfluous and make it part of Israel.
More than four decades later, Sharon’s dream of a greater Israel lives on. Once again, this dream seemed within reach. The Hamas massacre on October 7, 2023 provided the template for this. The IDF, the Israeli army, inflicted heavy losses on Hamas and Hezbollah. An Iranian-backed dictator was overthrown in Syria. In the summer of 2025, American and Israeli fighter jets and bombers disabled Iran’s air defenses. At the beginning of this year, the Iranian people once again demonstrated against their brutal government.
Ariel Sharon (left) and his deputy Shimon Peres.Image: AP/AP
Benjamin Netanyahu seized the opportunity. He managed to convince Donald Trump that the overthrow of the Ayatollahs in Tehran was within reach. He persuaded him to launch an attack with the aim of finally defeating the arch-enemy Iran and definitely rearranging the balance of power in the Middle East in Israel’s favor.
Around 100 days later, Netanyahu is faced with a heap of shambles. The Ayatollahs, more precisely the Revolutionary Guards, are still in power – and stronger than before. Trump, on the other hand, is forced for domestic political reasons to conclude a deal that de facto amounts to an admission of defeat.
This also ends the friendship between Netanyahu and Trump. The US President publicly insults the Israeli Prime Minister and praises the new rulers in Tehran, whom he recently wanted to overthrow, as pragmatic. What’s more: Trump made it clear to Netanyahu that the bombing of Lebanon was also over. In doing so, he also fulfills a condition of the Iranians, who want to protect their Hezbollah allies.
Netanyahu has no choice but to comply. Michael Oren, the former Israeli ambassador to Washington, puts it this way in the Wall Street Journal: “There is no question what Israel can do. It’s about what it needs to do. There is practically no wiggle room.”
No wonder there is a mixture of frustration and defiance in Israel. Netanyahu does not want to comment on the agreement between the USA and Iran. “The fight is not over yet,” he simply explains. And further: “This is an agreement that the United States has concluded, from the President of the United States. That is his decision. We have our own interests.”
Advocates for an uprising against Trump: Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir.Image: keystone
People around the Israeli prime minister are less diplomatic. The Washington Post quotes Yinon Magal, an important adviser to Netanyahu, who insults Trump as a “loser,” Vance as a “low life” and the two negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff as “two little Jews who were bought by Qatar and who betrayed their brothers in Israel.”
Meanwhile, Defense Minister Israel Katz explains: “We are against the withdrawal of our armed forces from Lebanon – despite all current and future pressure attempts.”
The right-wing extremists in the government are even calling for an uprising against Trump. Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir explains: “Trump’s agreement does not apply to us. Israel is not a subject of the United States, we are an independent, sovereign state.” With this, Ben Gvir is leaning way out of the window. Without American military aid, Israel’s sovereignty is little more than a pious wish. And Netanyahu probably gambled away. He has to grudgingly bow to Trump’s wishes. This makes him look like a weakling in the eyes of his compatriots.
Gayil Tashir, a political scientist at Hebrew University, sums it up in the Washington Post: “Netanyahu’s life project is collapsing before his eyes. He stands alone in the arena and can’t blame anyone for it.”
Standing in front of a pile of rubble: Benjamin Netanyahu.Image: Keystone/Watson
Sharon’s dream of a greater Israel shattered 40 years ago. Today Netanyahu is also faced with a shambles. He too had to experience what countless others had experienced before him who had relied on the US President. “Trump only ever does what benefits him,” said Michael Herzog, also a former ambassador to Washington. “He doesn’t care whether this is good for Israel.”