US President Trump is received by Vice President Han Zheng (3rd from left) upon his arrival in Beijing. Image: keystone
US President Donald Trump is traveling to Beijing. His goal: a deal with China. People in Taiwan fear that he will abandon the island nation for this.
May 13, 2026, 8:07 p.mMay 13, 2026, 8:07 p.m
Whatever the “big deal” with China that Donald Trump wants to negotiate with China’s strongman Xi Jinping looks like – one thing is certain: Trump urgently needs success. The shock waves that the Iran war he unleashed sent through the global economy have also hit his electorate in the form of rising inflation. High gasoline prices are poison for the popularity of a US president, and just six months before the midterms, Trump’s poll numbers are deep in the basement.
So it looks like Xi has the upper hand. China has already shown in the trade conflict with the USA that it has effective economic leverage. Particularly The USA is vulnerable when it comes to rare earthsin which China controls around 60 percent of global production and almost 90 percent of refining and which are used in the production of electric cars, smartphones, semiconductors, turbines and also in the defense industry.
No wonder there are concerns in Taiwan that Trump will betray the island nation in order to secure a deal with Xi Jinping. Observers speculate that Xi will use the opportunity to pressure Trump to change U.S. policy toward Taiwan. This could include a renewed postponement of American arms sales to Taiwan or even the abandonment of official US policy that Washington will oppose any violent change to the status quo.
Trump’s contradictory signals
Trump himself has sent contradictory signals in the past: In December 2016, as US president-elect, he accepted a congratulatory call from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, making him the first president-elect to speak publicly with a Taiwanese head of state since 1979. During his first term in office, he also developed relations with Taiwan Taiwan Travel Act which increased cooperation at the government level – and angered Beijing, which interpreted this as a breach of the One China policy. In contrast, during the election campaign before his second term, he said that Taiwan should pay the US to defend itself against China. He also accused Taipei of stealing from the American chip industry.
Taiwan – last bastion of the Kuomintang
There are historical reasons why Taiwan is dependent on American protection and that the American-Taiwanese relationship is so complex: The USA supported Chinese Civil War the Kuomintang (National People’s Party, KMT) under General Chiang Kai-shek. The Kuomintang lost the war against the communists under Mao Zedong and withdrew its troops to the last bastion in 1949 – the island of Taiwan. However, the Republic of China, also known as “National China”, still claimed to represent all of China.
However, this was also done by the communist government of the People’s Republic on the mainland, which to this day views Taiwan as a breakaway province and an integral part of China. To this day, Beijing is pursuing the so-called One China policy and does not tolerate official relations between other states and Taiwan. Initially, however, National China officially represented the state of China in international bodies such as the UN and also held the permanent Chinese seat in the UN Security Council.
The American Lieutenant General Joseph Stilwell awards Chiang Kai-shek the Legion of Merit.
Image: AP
In 1954, the USA concluded a defense pact with Taiwan to protect it from the overpowering People’s Republic. In addition to financial support for the Taiwanese military, the USA also stationed its own troops on the island from 1955; from 1960 onwards, nuclear weapons. The support of the regime in Taipei – Chiang Kai-shek ruled dictatorially – was in the larger American context Containment policywhich served to contain communism and was directed against the Soviet Union, the People’s Republic of China, North Korea and North Vietnam.
The People’s Republic is forcing Taiwan out of the UN
However, the People’s Republic, the giant on the mainland, which was also a nuclear power from 1964 onwards, managed to get more and more states on its side. The turning point came in 1971 UN Resolution 2758with which the UN General Assembly recognized the People’s Republic of China in Beijing as the only legitimate representative of China. This led to Taiwan’s exclusion from the Security Council and the UN. Today only twelve countries maintain official relations with Taipei.
The delegation of the People’s Republic of China officially takes its place in the UN General Assembly in November 1971. Image: PHOTOPRESS ARCHIVE
The background to this development was a geopolitical shift: from the late 1950s onwards Soviet-Chinese relations significantly clouded; In 1960 there was finally an open break, which even culminated in a military confrontation on the border river Ussuri in 1969. Beginning in 1969, the United States moved closer to Beijing to exploit this rift and weaken the Soviet Union’s geopolitical position.
Washington accepts “One China principle”
As part of this so-called Ping pong diplomacy US President Richard Nixon and Chinese Prime Minister Zhou Enlai signed the agreement in 1972 Shanghai Communiquéin which the USA recognized that there was only “one China” and Taiwan was part of it. The US withdrew its nuclear weapons from the island and reduced its troop strength there – but initially continued its official diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
President Nixon with Mao during his visit to China in 1972. Image: Wikimedia
In 1979, Washington officially made the change: the USA established full diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China and at the same time ended those with Taiwan. The remaining US troops were withdrawn. Nevertheless, the USA did not simply abandon Taiwan: relations continued at the official level and the US Congress passed the agreement in the same year Taiwan Relations Act. In it, the USA committed itself to complying with all international commitments towards Taiwan made before 1979 – with the exception of the mutual defense agreement. The agreement expressly condemns any violent change to the status quo; Taiwan was also promised arms deliveries of a “defensive nature”.
“Six Assurances”
In 1982, during the term of office of US President Ronald Reagan, Taipei was also able to achieve the so-called Six assurances lash down. They contain the following agreements:
- The US has not set a date for ending arms sales to Taiwan.
- The US will not change the terms of the Taiwan Relations Act.
- The US will not consult the People’s Republic of China before arms sales to Taiwan.
- The US will not mediate between Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China.
- The US has not changed its mind about Taiwan independence.
- USA will not force Taiwan into negotiations with the People’s Republic of China.
Under President Reagan, Taiwan received the “Six Assurances.” Image: EPA
The policy that the USA has pursued since then can be described as “strategic ambiguity”: Washington deliberately leaves open whether the USA would defend Taiwan militarily in the event of a military attack. This is intended to deter Beijing from military adventures as they could lead to US intervention. At the same time, the lack of clarity is intended to prevent Taipei from unilaterally declaring formal independence, which would cross a red line for the People’s Republic.
Shifted balance of power
Both Taiwan and the People’s Republic have experienced stormy economic development since then. In particular, China’s rise to become the second largest economy in the world behind the USA and its role as the “workshop of the world” have permanently shifted the balance. Beijing’s increase in power, which is also expressed militarily, has once again made the Taiwan issue politically virulent. One sign of this was the military maneuvers carried out by China in response to the state visit of a congressional delegation under Nancy Pelosi carried out almost four years ago.
In response to Pelosi’s visit, China deployed tanks near the coast.
Whether China could actually annex the breakaway island by military force in the near future is anyone’s guess. Russia’s experience in Ukraine should warn Beijing to be cautious. For Chinese forces, which have not experienced an armed conflict in decades, conquering an island with strong defensive forces is unlikely to be an easy undertaking. However, since Trump took office for the second time, doubts have been increasing as to whether the USA would actually support Taiwan militarily. And given that the US has heavily used up its weapons arsenal in the Iran war, the question arises as to whether it is currently even capable of doing so.
Video impressively shows the saber rattling between China and Taiwan
Video: watson/hanna dedial