Leaders’ public appeals have been complemented by back-door maneuvering. At least one allied country delegation has approached U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker to make their case directly, according to a senior alliance diplomat. There’s a “window of opportunity,” they said.
On paper, the strategy appears to be working. Trump on Saturday told reporters he “might” move U.S. troops to Poland. “I have a great relationship with the president,” he said, “so that’s possible.”
But political realities on the ground could get in the way. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, the political opponent of President Nawrocki, warned last week that Poland should not “poach” troops from allies. He added Warsaw would take “any opportunity” to increase the U.S. presence on its territory, but he would not allow the country to be used to break European unity. Tusk and Nawrocki are at loggerheads on several issues, and frequently publicly oppose each other’s political views.
While local authorities from German towns hosting U.S. troops would prefer the soldiers stay for economic reasons, the government is unlikely to oppose a greater American presence on Russia’s border as a deterrent, according to one German official. A spokesperson for the German defense ministry declined to comment.
However, a rotation may be hard to achieve in practice. Not all frontline countries are practically able to host an extra 5,000 troops, said Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at the Defense Priorities think tank.
Poland and Romania have the necessary spare capacity to host more soldiers, with minor infrastructure upgrades, but “in the Baltics, space is more constrained and some additional planning and construction would likely be needed,” she said.