Image: Keystone/Shutterstock/Watson
analysis
At the upcoming meeting of the two most powerful men in the world, Xi Jinping has the better cards.
May 9, 2026, 3:12 p.mMay 9, 2026, 3:12 p.m
Donald Trump is traveling to Beijing in a week. He’s late. Last year, the heads of state of Australia, France, New Zealand, Spain and the EU paid tribute to Xi Jinping. In the current year, those from Finland, Ireland, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Germany and Spain have been added.
The US President is the main reason for this mass pilgrimage to the Middle Kingdom. With his tariff war and his attacks on the EU and NATO, he has unsettled the USA’s traditional allies so much that they are looking for alternatives. The usual warnings about human rights violations and the fear of new dependency are thrown overboard.
Was already in Beijing: Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz.Image: keystone
At the same time, this mass pilgrimage is putting pressure on the American president. “After watching so many other leaders strike mini-deals with Beijing, Trump may be tempted to one-up them by striking an even grander deal with Beijing, accompanied by grand announcements,” notes China expert Michael Kovrig in “Foreign Affairs.”
This fear is even spreading in the Trump camp. The economist Oren Cass – fundamentally a supporter of the president’s economic policy – asks the anxious question in an op-ed in the New York Times: “Will Trump invite the world’s worst predator to join us?”
Cass is alluding to speculation that Trump wants to sign a deal with Xi that stipulates that China wants to invest a trillion (in the German sense) dollars in the USA. “That would be an unforced error of historic proportions,” said Cass. China is not an investor like others, Cass continued. It plays by its rules and aims to dominate the entire value chain and crush the competition.
“Allowing China to dominate vertically integrated supply chains on both sides of the Pacific would compound evil,” Cass said. “It would do more damage than the election to admit China into the World Trade Organization.”
Meeting triggers mixed feelings
It probably won’t come to that. Nevertheless, the meeting between the two presidents will be followed with mixed emotions around the globe; after all, we live in a G2 world, a world dominated by two superpowers. “That’s not a good feeling,” states the Economist. “One superpower has a leader who treats his allies like scapegoats and who tears apart the institutions that guarantee international stability. The other has an authoritarian regime that oppresses its neighbors and secretly fuels conflicts in other countries that it could defuse.”
As is well known, Trump considers himself to be the most brilliant dealmaker of all time. It is questionable whether that will be enough to be successful in Beijing, because he has bad cards. Thanks to his tariff policy, the trade deficit with China, which was once $400 billion, has shrunk by half. But appearances are deceptive: China simply redirects a large part of its exports to the USA via other countries.
In addition, the two countries exchange very different goods. Cynics refer to US exports as the “three Bs”, meaning: Beef, Beans and Boeing (beef, beans and aircraft from Boeing). The Chinese, on the other hand, have further expanded their position as the “workshop of the world” and produce almost everything that the hearts of American consumers desire. Around a third of all goods in the world are now manufactured in the Middle Kingdom. The UN Industrial Development Organization assumes that by 2030 it will be 45 percent.
Also in demand in China: American beef.Image: keystone
By declaring the tariffs unconstitutional, the Supreme Court further weakened Trump’s position. There are therefore fears that the US President might be tempted to make too many concessions to Beijing on the issue of Taiwan.
Before the Iran War, expectations for the meeting between Xi and Trump were very high. In the meantime, disillusionment has set in. “It would be a big victory if the two presidents had a nice meeting and decided to continue trading with each other,” explains Michael Hart of the American Chamber of Commerce in China in the Economist.