analysis
Eastern Europe expert Marcel Hirsiger analyzes the harbingers of this year’s celebrations of the victory over Nazi Germany. And he comes to a serious conclusion for Russia.
May 6, 2026, 8:56 p.mMay 6, 2026, 8:56 p.m
Marcel Hirsiger / ch media
No heavy military equipment, hardly any high-ranking international guests: the Victory Day parade planned for next Saturday shows what a hopeless situation Vladimir Putin currently finds himself in. However, it would be wrong to conclude from this that he is striving for peace with Ukraine. On the contrary, there is a risk of further escalation.
In his 26 years in office, Russian leader Vladimir Putin has turned the celebration of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany on May 9 into an unprecedented show of national identity and military strength. The increasingly pompous parades, the numerous state guests, the weeks of media coverage – Victory Day has long since become the most important holiday in Russia.
This is what the 2025 parade was like:
Ideologically, the leadership symbolically charged the victory over Nazi Germany and made it the core of Russia’s self-image. Today’s war against Ukraine has long been seen as a new edition of the Second World War: Russia is defending itself against the supposedly fascist West, which threatens its own values and the millennia-old civilization. Victory Day is no longer just a memory of 1945, but already a projection of the future.
However, Ukraine’s military successes in recent weeks mean that the Victory Day parade will take place in a completely different context this year. The war has also reached the heart of Russian society with numerous drone and missile attacks. Kiev not only hit oil and gas infrastructure in the hinterland, but also targeted targets in Moscow. Most recently, Ukraine even managed to damage a high-rise building within sight of the Kremlin.
Victory Day was planned meticulously.Image: www.imago-images.de
The ceasefire announced by the Russian side for Friday and Saturday illustrates the desperation in the Kremlin. In previous years, even approaching storm clouds in the Moscow area were shot at to avoid rain over the city, but the leadership has now completely lost control. Russia is reacting to the Ukrainian threat in its usual manner: with insults, mockery and the threat of even harsher retaliatory strikes on Kiev’s city center.
The war has arrived in Russia
But Putin can no longer close his eyes to the reality: the war has arrived in Russia, which is not lost on the population. Carrying out a large parade with heavy equipment under these circumstances would present potential targets to Ukraine on a silver platter. And a parade canceled at short notice would be hard to beat in terms of disgrace for the ruler.
Marcel Hirsiger is a lecturer at the Northwestern Switzerland University of Applied Sciences and an expert on Eastern Europe.Image: zvg
At the same time, it is also clear that the Russian leadership is increasingly isolated internationally. While China’s President Xi Jinping was a guest last year, this time Putin has to make do with his eternal ally Alexander Lukashenko. It is still unclear whether Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico will travel, as several EU countries refuse overflight permits.
The guest list, which has not yet been confirmed, makes it clear that heads of state are currently afraid of attending, either for reasons of actual security or because Putin has now finally become a pariah and they no longer want to be at his side.
The events of the last few weeks show that Ukraine can increasingly turn the tide in its favor. However, it is misleading to believe that Putin would now be interested in real peace negotiations. Rather, the Kremlin ruler’s only option is to escalate. In recent years he has overreached himself, promised too much to his own population, and the stakes were too high – militarily, economically, humanly.
All the problems and losses that the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has brought can only be compensated for by a victory. Accordingly, the hysteria has not only increased in tone: threats against NATO countries have been intensified and attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure have increased again. Putin’s only option now is to flee forward. This should not only be warning enough for Ukraine. (aargauerzeitung.ch)