This is how expensive the oil crisis threatens to be for every individual in this country.
April 15, 2026, 9:17 p.mApril 15, 2026, 9:17 p.m
Fuel prices in this country have already risen significantly since the beginning of the year, as figures from the mobility club TCS show. For unleaded petrol it was around 20 cents, for diesel it was even 36 cents. However, so far prices have remained below the record levels of 2022. At that time, prices shot up after Russia attacked Ukraine. Diesel, for example, reached a record price of 2.40 francs per liter. In the current crisis, a value of 2.24 francs has been reached so far. But that was before the last tanker arrived.
On the contrary. Even less oil comes through. Because now it’s not just Iran that is preventing almost all tankers from passing through. The USA, for its part, wants to block all tankers that have arrived or left Iranian ports. Now there could be a second attempt at negotiations. Meanwhile, the oil crisis is entering a critical phase.
So far, emerging markets have been hit hardest. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), countries such as Bangladesh and Pakistan have already had to ration natural gas supplies to their energy-intensive industries. But the first consequences of the blockade have now reached the rich industrialized countries.
Gasoline, diesel, kerosene and heating oil have become significantly more expensive. Overall inflation in the Eurozone and the USA is therefore higher than before, by almost one percentage point. If the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed in April, this is just the beginning.
A tanker off Oman on the way to the Strait of Hormuz. image: Shady Alassar/getty
“April will be much worse than March,” warned IEA boss Fatih Birol at the beginning of the month, according to the US media outlet CNBC. In March, oil tankers that had passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the start of the war reached their destination ports and refineries. As a result, global oil supply fell even less in March than would otherwise have been the case. No more such tankers will arrive in April. As Birol says: “There will be nothing left in April.”
This “nothing” that arrives at the world’s ports in April means that twice as much oil supply will be lost in April as in March. The oil shortage will be twice as great. The situation will be similar with liquid gas and other goods that normally reach world markets via the Strait of Hormuz. Birol continued: “This will have an impact on inflation and dampen economic growth in many countries.”
A crucial moment
In other words, rising energy prices will push inflation even higher. In other countries, however, oil and gas will not only be more expensive, but will no longer be available in sufficient quantities. Birol says: “Energy rationing could soon occur in many countries.”
The fact that there was already “nothing” in April was slightly exaggerated by the IEA. According to the New York Times, the bank JPMorgan Chase has calculated that the very last tanker will not arrive at a world port via the Strait of Hormuz until next week.
According to the Financial Times, the arrival of the last tanker is definitely a “decisive moment” in the oil crisis. It is expected that this could happen on April 20th, when the last tankers will arrive in Malaysia and Australia. But after that, as Birol says, “nothing” actually comes out of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passed before the start of the war. According to analysts, the oil crisis will worsen in Europe and the USA a few weeks later.
According to the “Market Watch” platform, experts at JPMorgan Chase bank are less likely to experience real supply bottlenecks in Europe. Rather, rising costs are to be expected. Europe will have to compete with Asia for the remaining oil.
“Things could get tricky in some European countries in the month of May,” says IEA boss Birol in an interview with the German “Spiegel”. Things could be tight, especially for diesel and kerosene. “Not immediately, but in the coming weeks.” Many fuel depots have emptied in the past few weeks. Birol did not want to reveal which countries it would affect. He left it with the warning: “No country is immune.”
Germany needs a speed limit
Birol advises Germany to take action anyway. It should consider setting a speed limit on the highways to save fuel. Find out about your dependence on natural gas, especially for heating. After all, it has experienced two major gas crises in four years. The exit from nuclear energy was a mistake, but one cannot go back; only small modular reactors can be considered. Above all, Germany must replace more oil and gas with electricity. China is further ahead here and is therefore getting through the oil crisis better than most countries.
If Germany has to save, then Switzerland too? At the KOF Institute at ETH Zurich, director Hans Gersbach explains when asked that the consequences are expected to be less severe for Switzerland. In Germany, the economy is significantly more dependent on fossil energy than in Switzerland.
Nevertheless, according to Gersbach, Switzerland will also be affected if the price of oil remains at $105 per barrel for many months. The average person would then have 500 to 700 francs less income annually. Inflation will be around 0.6 percent higher in 2026. At least Switzerland will avoid a recession.
Fuel prices in this country have already risen significantly since the beginning of the year, as figures from the mobility club TCS show. For unleaded petrol it was around 20 cents, for diesel it was even 36 cents. However, so far prices have remained below the record levels of 2022. At that time, prices shot up after Russia attacked Ukraine. Diesel, for example, reached a record price of 2.40 francs per liter. In the current crisis, a value of 2.24 francs has been reached so far. But that was before the last tanker arrived. (aargauerzeitung.ch)