US President Donald Trump says the war is “almost over”.Image: keystone
analysis
US President Donald Trump hinted at an imminent end to the Iran war in an interview. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by US forces is putting Tehran under pressure – and at the same time is not without problems for Trump.
April 15, 2026, 8:23 p.mApril 15, 2026, 8:23 p.m
“I see it as very close to over,” said Donald Trump in an interview with the US television channel Fox News about the Iran war. And told ABC News’ Jonathan Karl He explained that he was not thinking of extending the ceasefire – he did not think it was necessary. “I think you’re going to experience something incredible in the next two days,” he said. “I really believe that.” Iran now has a different regime because the radicals have been eliminated: “They are gone, no longer with us.”
Trump in an interview with FOX about Iran and its nuclear weapons
Video: watson/nina bürge
This optimistic assessment by the US President contrasts with Iranian threats in view of the American blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to have the Strait of Bab al-Mandab closed by the allied Houthi militia in Yemen and thus also to block the Red Sea. It also contrasts with the failure of the first round of American-Iranian talks in Islamabad. There they stood the respective negotiating positions of the USA and Iran are irreconcilable: According to reports, Washington insisted on complete nuclear disarmament, the handover of highly enriched uranium reserves, massive restrictions on ballistic missile capabilities and free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz without tariffs.
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Tehran, for its part, demanded non-aggression guarantees and the lifting of all sanctions, as well as reparations payments and permanent Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. The complete abandonment of the nuclear program is also an ultimate red line for the Iranian regime – which even seems understandable in the light of the current war, because if Iran had already had nuclear weapons, it would not have been attacked at all.
So what does Trump base his optimism on? What does he hope to achieve from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that has now begun? And what scenarios are now conceivable for the near future?
What does Trump hope to achieve from the blockade?
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz – which has effectively already been closed to most shipping by Iran – is intended to cut off the regime in Tehran’s most important source of income during the two-week ceasefire and thus force it to make concessions. According to that Wall Street Journal A US official told the newspaper that the US Navy had stopped eight ships traveling to or from Iranian ports since the blockade began.
A complete blockade of Iranian merchant shipping is likely to have serious consequences for Iran’s government revenues: more than 90 percent of Iran’s $109.7 billion in annual trade volume passes through the Persian Gulf; Oil and gas accounts for 80 percent of the government’s export revenue and 23.7 percent of GDP.
Kharg Island alone generates $53 billion per year. Image: planet labs pbc
This causes Iranian ships to no longer be able to pass through the strait according to US sanctions expert Miad Maleki Iran costs about $276 million per day in lost exports. In addition, there are prevented imports worth 159 million dollars per day, which together results in total economic damage of around 435 million dollars (around 340 million Swiss francs) per day. That’s $13 billion per month. The Iranian national currency, the rial, will finally collapse, said Maleki, who formerly worked for the US government. “The blockade makes continued resistance economically impossible.”
Nevertheless, it is questionable whether this economic thumbscrew will persuade the Iranian regime to give in and abandon its nuclear program. Tehran has not buckled under direct and strong military pressure, and the chances that it will do so at the negotiating table are close to zero.
Why is the blockade only coming now?
Since hostilities began on February 28, Iran has effectively closed the strait. With its armada of small and maneuverable speedboats, the Iranian navy should be able to maintain its blockade. However, it is selective: Iranian, Russian and Chinese tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz unhindered. For the US Navy, in turn, it would have been easy to prevent these ships from passing through, thus increasing the pressure on Tehran and its most important supporters – China and Russia.
At that time, Trump decided against a US blockade of the strait – probably out of fear of a catastrophic increase in oil prices worldwide. A complete blockade would have immediately taken millions of barrels of oil off the market. Currently, with the current ceasefire and further negotiations on the horizon, the energy markets are likely to react less sensitively and Trump can increase the pressure.
What consequences will the blockade have?
The US armed forces – according to their own statements, more than twelve warships, more than 100 combat and surveillance aircraft and around 10,000 military personnel are deployed to monitor the blockade – are not intended to ensure a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Ships of non-Iranian origin should continue to be allowed to pass. This gives Iran the opportunity to circumvent the blockade through ship-to-ship transfers, reflagging and indirect sales through intermediaries. This cannot compensate for the loss of oil exports, but it can mitigate the financial consequences.
Since the global energy markets react very quickly to real or even perceived disruptions in supply, just the hint of restricted shipping in the Gulf can drive oil prices up. This in turn is a problem for Trump, because rising gasoline costs and fueled inflation in the USA are poisoning his poll numbers. This is all the more so since the majority of his electorate is hostile to foreign policy escapades and even more costly wars in distant parts of the world. The longer the war lasts without the regime in Tehran buckling and the longer oil prices remain high, the harder it will be for Trump to justify the war.
If Iran does not show itself willing to compromise at the negotiating table, Trump will be faced with the choice of either ending the blockade and accommodating the Iranian regime on important points or escalating the war again – with all the negative consequences that this will inevitably have for him domestically.
Face-saving de-escalation?
Another scenario is therefore more likely: a de-escalation that allows both sides to save face because they can demonstrate success. Seen in this light, Trump’s blockade could be a means of influencing future negotiations. If Iran were to offer a hand for inspections of its nuclear facilities and ballistic missile arsenal and also guarantee freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump could sell this as a success of the blockade and in turn move away from demanding that Tehran end its nuclear program.
That could also be the case here. Diplomatic back channels between the US and Iran have persisted even in times of open hostility. If negotiations resume, Iran could offer narrowly defined steps — on inspections, freedom of navigation or regional disengagement — that the Trump administration can present as evidence that the blockade has worked.
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