US President Donald Trump is threatening Iran with a naval blockade.Image: keystone
The talks between the USA and Iran in Islamabad have failed. What this means for the ceasefire and the further course of the war.
April 12, 2026, 5:36 p.mApril 12, 2026, 5:52 p.m
US President Donald Trump is tightening his course towards Iran after the collapsed negotiations. In an initial reaction, Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. The American Navy will “shortly” prevent any ship from passing through the strait.
The aim is to restore the right to peaceful passage, he wrote on his Internet service Truth Social. The US President justified the move with threats from Tehran and spoke of “global blackmail”.
If Iran responds with attacks on US forces or civilian ships, America will respond with massive military force, Trump said. The US military is “ready for action”. The goal of this blockade: Washington wants to persuade Iran to return to the negotiating table. The president predicted in an interview with Fox News that this could soon be the case. “And they will give us everything we want,” Trump said of Iran.
Earlier, Vice President JD Vance left Islamabad empty-handed. Talks between him and Iranian negotiators about a final ceasefire have failed.
Is the ceasefire now collapsing? The most important questions and answers:
What consequences will Trump’s announcement have for shipping?
The Strait of Hormuz is now de facto doubly blocked by the USA and Iran. In doing so, Trump seems to want to prevent Iran from charging tolls. That could also work. On the other hand, a military escalation now seems more likely since Iran is unlikely to back down this time either. The Revolutionary Guards could attack US Navy ships, which would result in American retaliation, which Trump has already threatened. The war would continue.
2.Why did the talks in Islamabad fail?
The starting position was difficult from the start. The Iranians did not come to Pakistan as defeated. They clearly signaled to the USA that their war strategy did not lead to Tehran’s surrender and that concessions were therefore necessary. Iran expert Mahdi Rezaei-Tazik told CH Media on Fridaythat the regime in Tehran emerged from the war stronger and is therefore prepared to make far fewer concessions than before the attacks by the USA and Israel.
US Vice President JD Vance appears visibly tense at the press conference on Sunday after the meeting with the Iranian delegation.Image: keystone
Washington insisted on complete nuclear disarmament, the handover of highly enriched uranium reserves and massive restrictions on ballistic missile capabilities. Tehran, for its part, demanded non-aggression guarantees and the lifting of all sanctions, as well as reparations payments and permanent Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. A European diplomat accredited in Islamabad emphasized to the Washington Post: “Each of these questions had the potential to torpedo an agreement on its own.”
What does the failure mean for the ceasefire?
The two-week ceasefire, which came into force on April 8, was already on shaky ground before Trump’s Hormuz announcement. Even before the actual talks had begun in Islamabad, Israel and Hezbollah were once again engaged in heavy fighting in Lebanon. The Iranian negotiator, Speaker of Parliament Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, made it clear that negotiations could only begin once a ceasefire was in effect in Lebanon and frozen Iranian assets had been released. Both conditions remained unfulfilled.
Workers in Islamabad dismantle a poster advertising the Iran talks.Image: keystone
The Strait of Hormuz was also not actually opened. The Iranian military continued to coordinate the passage. Shipping companies reported protection money of up to two million dollars per ship. Sultan Al Jaber, Minister of Industry of the United Arab Emirates, summed it up: The road is not open; Access is restricted, conditioned and controlled by Iran.
What course will the USA now take towards Iran?
The US is facing a strategic stalemate that has been further exacerbated by the failure of the Islamabad talks, analyzes Israeli Iran expert Danny Citrinowicz. For weeks, American policy was guided by the assumption that sustained military pressure had weakened Iran’s negotiating position to the point that Tehran would be forced to make significant concessions. But this calculation didn’t work out.
The motorcade of US Vice President JD Vance on the way to the airport after the failed Islamabad talks.Image: keystone
“The options that Washington is now faced with are all problematic,” says Citronowicz. A return to negotiations risks reproducing the same dynamic. Ending the confrontation without agreement would signal American weakness and undermine the deterrent effect. A resumption of the conflict is also unlikely to produce decisive results: a continuation of the war would trigger a broader Iranian response and inflict new damage on global energy markets.
How strong is Iran’s negotiating position really?
Stronger than many observers had expected just weeks ago. Tehran withstood military pressure for 40 days, taking massive military strikes and demonstrating its ability to retaliate. Iran still has its highly enriched uranium reserves. The Iranian military effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz. The Revolutionary Guards have further consolidated their power internally.
What’s next?
After the collapse of the talks, JD Vance said that Iran could still accept the final and best offer from the US. He did not name any concrete steps for further negotiations. The ceasefire is formally still in effect for just under a week and a half. Nobody knows what comes next. A new escalation surrounding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz has become more likely. The Iranian military is likely to use force to defend its most important trump card.
For a reliable agreement between Iran and the USA, writes the Washington Post, citing Western analysts, major powers such as China and Russia would also be needed as guarantors – powers that have connections to both Tehran and Washington.
However, as the US broadcaster CNN reports, China is currently preparing to deliver anti-aircraft missiles to Iran. Beijing denied the media report on Sunday. According to US intelligence, Iran is using the ceasefire to replenish its supplies.
Meanwhile, skepticism prevails in Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had promised the population a final victory, is under immense pressure domestically. An agreement that grants Iran security guarantees and reparations payments would be difficult for his government to sell – especially not as long as Tehran still has enriched uranium.
What does this mean for the price of oil?
It is certain that tensions in the Middle East will continue to rise following the failure of Islamabad. Traders expect oil prices to rise back to $110 next week. If it is not possible to find a path to peace in the remaining days until the formal end of the ceasefire, it is also possible that the $150 mark could be reached – with devastating consequences for the global economy. (aargauerzeitung.ch)