A Budapest resident throws his ballot paper into the ballot box on Sunday morning – a high voter turnout is expected.Image: keystone
Populous left-wing cities are at a disadvantage in Hungary’s complicated electoral system. The very party that constructed the system could benefit once again.
April 12, 2026, 10:28April 12, 2026, 10:28
Simon Maurer, Budapest / ch media
The case is only supposedly clear: Whoever gets the most votes in a democracy ends up getting the most seats in parliament – at least that’s the theory. In practice, this works differently in many countries, as was seen with the election of Donald Trump as US President in 2016. Trump received fewer votes overall than Hillary Clinton, but still became president.
A similar scenario is possible in Hungary on Sunday. However, the initial situation is more acute than in the USA because the complicated Hungarian electoral system, which Viktor Orbán introduced in 2014, specifically promotes distortions of the voters’ will. It is possible for a party with significantly less than half of the votes to ultimately win a comfortable majority of seats in parliament.
The right to vote is difficult for normal voters to understand
One reason for this is so-called gerrymandering. Orbán’s government has tailored the boundaries of single-member constituencies so that Fidesz strongholds – mostly smaller, rural districts – bring in a disproportionate number of direct mandates. Opposition strongholds, especially in Budapest and larger cities, were either concentrated in a few large constituencies or spread across several districts.
Added to this is the extremely complicated structure of the Hungarian electoral system. Only 106 of the total 199 parliamentary seats are awarded directly in the constituencies to the person with the most votes. The remaining 93 mandates are awarded via the national party list, to which the constituency votes of some voters are also added (winner bonus, see box below). This makes it difficult even for political scientists to give an assessment of the election outcome.
Not surprisingly, it will take some time until the first projections are published on Sunday evening – probably around 11 p.m. However, it is already clear that opposition leader Péter Magyar will probably have to win by a significant margin if he wants to make up for the structural disadvantages of the electoral system and form the largest faction in parliament.
Even the surveys strongly contradict each other
The foreign policy think tank «Atlantic Council» estimates that Magyar specifically needs a lead of at least six percentage points to achieve a parliamentary majority. Princeton professor Kim Lane Scheppele tells the left-liberal online magazine «Vox» assumes that “at least 10 to 15 percent lead” is necessary.
In this context, the predictions of the survey institutes from Hungary are also difficult to assess. Independent and opposition-affiliated pollsters see the Tisza party clearly ahead, while pro-government poll makers predict a victory for Orbán’s Fidesz (see graphic). It is also still unclear whether the right-wing extremist party “Mi Hazánk” will reach the 5 percent threshold.
However, there was a surprising development regarding the polls on Saturday. The renowned American survey institute AtlasIntel, which correctly predicted Donald Trump’s election two years ago, published a survey on the Hungarian elections for the first time. The forecast: AtlasIntel also believes in a victory for opposition leader Péter Magyar.
Ultimately, however, what will be more important than any number game will be what the official election results turn out to be. An official final result is expected later on Monday. (aargauerzeitung.ch)