A ship in the Strait of Hormuz. (symbol image)Image: keystone
The markets reacted euphorically to the ceasefire in the Iran war, and the price of oil immediately collapsed. But even more than 24 hours later, it is clear that almost nothing is happening on the Strait of Hormuz, which plays a crucial role in the global economy.
04/09/2026, 07:5404/09/2026, 08:03
The resource shortage caused by the Iranian Hormuz blockade is keeping the world at bay and causing major turbulence on the stock market. The price of oil exploded within a short period of time, and many countries had to activate strategic reserves or – especially in Asia – even impose austerity measures.
On Wednesday, the warring parties agreed on a two-week ceasefire. One condition for this includes the temporary opening of the Strait of Hormuz. About a day later, however, it becomes clear that so far hardly anything has happened regarding the all-important oil bottleneck.
Vessel movements resume in the Strait of Hormuz following ceasefire announcement
Early signs of vessel activity are emerging in the Strait of Hormuz following a ceasefire announcement, which includes a temporary reopening of the strategic waterway to allow for negotiations.… pic.twitter.com/CSy6PZlCJ4
— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) April 8, 2026
Hardly any ships still pass through the Strait of Hormuz.source: x.com
Iran declared again on Wednesday evening (Swiss time) that ships should not currently pass through the strait unless this has been expressly agreed upon with the Iranian rulers. Most shipping companies take the implicit threat seriously. According to the Iranian Fars news agency, only two ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire began.
Those too New York Times reported on Thursday night (Swiss time), citing the analysis company Plumberwhich, among other things, tracks global shipping traffic, shows that only four ships have crossed the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire began. As a result, none of them were oil or gas tankers, but rather all so-called bulk carriers. These are ships that transport dry goods such as coal, cement or grain.
A chief advisor to the US oil company Gulf Oil confirmed to CNNthat there are currently no signs that more crude oil will be leaving the streets soon.
“I would like to emphasize that these are really only very tentative steps at the moment. There is no sign of the Strait reopening and it appears to be a fragile truce, to put it bluntly.”
Due to the extremely fragile ceasefire, shipping companies and their insurers are currently “very cautious” about possible Hormuz transits. He also sees no significant improvement in the situation in the near future:
“It looks like we are still weeks away from being able to restore even 50 or 70 percent of the shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz that we rely on.”
Iranian state media previously reported that several tankers that were ready to transit were turned away during Wednesday. They also cited the fragility of the ceasefire as a reason for the ongoing blockade. While Iran argues that this must also apply to Lebanon, the US and Israel have stated that this conflict is not part of the ceasefire.
Israel carried out devastating air strikes on Lebanon on Wednesday, of all days, after the ceasefire was announced. At least 182 people, including many civilians, according to reports, were killed. According to Kpler, no ship has passed through the Strait of Hormuz since this attack.
Contradictory statements on the US side
There were contradictory statements from the US side about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. At a media conference on Wednesday, White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt described reports of an ongoing road closure as false. At the same media conference, she called for the strait to be reopened. She did not answer questions from journalists about who currently controls the Strait of Hormuz.
Contradicts herself in a media conference: Karoline Leavitt.Image: keystone
But that is not necessary: the Iranians are obviously still able to influence who can pass on the street and who cannot. Immediately after the ceasefire was announced, it became clear that Iran would do so “trump card” continues to hold in his hands.
Presumably because of this fact, US President Donald Trump felt compelled to threaten Iran again with a new military escalation on Thursday night. If Iran does not fully comply with the “real agreement reached,” the already weakened enemy will be destroyed, Trump said. The US troops in the region would therefore continue to hold their positions.