This seems anything but peaceful: In a demonstration orchestrated by the regime, Iranians in Tehran burn the Israeli and US flags after their regime declared a ceasefire on April 8, 2026.Image: keystone
interview
After the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the USA and Iran, the world breathes a sigh of relief. Many questions are still unanswered and peace is anything but in sight, as political scientist Andreas Böhm puts it in an interview.
April 8, 2026, 5:58 p.mApril 8, 2026, 6:30 p.m
Shortly before US President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to the Iranian regime expired, the two warring parties agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Did the world narrowly avoid a US nuclear attack on Iran?
Andreas Böhm: It’s hard to say, and I certainly hope that this question wasn’t raised. The use of nuclear weapons is absolutely banned at the international level. The USA would have lost the chance with all of its allies. In addition, they should have expected that Iran would retaliate massively. Nevertheless, there were signs that a nuclear attack could not be completely ruled out.
What signs were there?
I am currently in Italy and noticed how the Italian Foreign Ministry has prepared for such a scenario. In addition, Trump has so far waged this war like a video game, with unclear goals and an opaque strategy in which nuclear weapons only function as a practical toy for him.
To person
Andreas Böhm is a political scientist and lecturer in international law and international affairs at the University of St. Gallen. His focus is on the Middle East. Before that, he worked as a political analyst in the private sector.
Image: zvg
Now the ceasefire is in place. How stable is this?
The USA and Iran will adhere to the ceasefire for the time being. Israel has also agreed to halt its attacks on Iran for the time being, although the ceasefire is an embarrassment to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu because he was not involved in the talks. The sticking point remains Lebanon. Iran maintains that the ceasefire also applies to Lebanon. Israel disagrees and launched attacks on southern Lebanon this morning. The question arises as to how the Iranian regime deals with these attacks. If it accepts this, it betrays its allies. If it breaks the ceasefire by striking back against Israel, we will be back at the same point as before. It is therefore not even certain whether the ceasefire will remain in place until Friday’s meeting between the US and Iran.
Photo of a cafe in the southern Lebanese port city of Sidon that was destroyed in an Israeli attack, on April 8, 2026. Despite the ceasefire, Israel continues its attacks on Lebanon.Image: keystone
The ceasefire only came about because Iran agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz. How exactly is this supposed to work from a purely logistical perspective?
The Strait of Hormuz is not literally closed. Passing through them has so far been simply too dangerous due to Iran’s threat to attack ships. Theoretically, the ships could now pass through the strait again. But nobody does that. It would take several weeks for traffic on the Strait of Hormuz to start up again to some extent, and it would take two months for regular traffic to be possible again. The two-week ceasefire is therefore absolutely irrelevant for shipping traffic. No insurance company would be liable for a ship under these conditions and without explicit assurances from Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz is a strait in the Persian Gulf that is one of the most important and busiest points of world trade.Image: Watson
What purpose does the two-week ceasefire serve instead?
If the ceasefire can last for two weeks, the war will slow down. And it would make it more difficult for the warring parties to resume fighting.
Negotiations between the USA and Iran are scheduled to take place in Pakistan on Friday. The Iranian regime has presented a 10-point plan as a basis. How realistic is it that the two parties will find each other?
The Iranian regime is currently in a better negotiating position. Because Trump has accepted their 10-point plan as a basis, it represents the basis of the negotiations: the lifting of all economic sanctions, the possession of nuclear weapons, the violence across the Strait of Hormuz, the halting of attacks on Iran and its allies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Gulf states will protest against Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz; Israel will intervene against Iran’s nuclear weapons and an end to the attacks in Lebanon. This means: It is now up to the USA to get parties like Israel and the Gulf states to make concessions. And that could be very difficult.
Especially with Israel?
Yes. Netanyahu has still not achieved his war goals. On the one hand, he wants to overthrow the Iranian regime and, on the other hand, ensure that the Iranian state can no longer launch attacks on Israel. That’s why Israel destroyed a lot of civilian infrastructure in Iran – which is ultimately a war crime.
What goals is the USA pursuing with the negotiations on Friday?
The USA is in a dead end. Because it was already unclear what goal they were pursuing when they started this war. Iran was completely misjudged: Trump believed that with the killing of the Supreme Leader and the bombings he could automatically bring about regime change – just as he managed to do in Venezuela. Now the USA finds itself in a war that it no longer knows how to get out of. At the same time, support for Israel is dwindling in the USA.
How will the Iran war continue in the next two weeks?
The USA will try to rebuild its positions. The Iranians will try to reestablish their missile firing positions. And Trump will hardly be able to avoid giving the Iranian regime control over the Strait of Hormuz.
That means that even if the ceasefire lasts for two weeks, will we then be back at the same point as we are today?
Yes, that is very possible.