US President Donald Trump warned on Tuesday that a “whole civilization” could die tonight “never to be brought back again” if Iran fails to respond to his ultimatum. He has threatened to bomb bridges and energy infrastructure, sending the country “back to the Stone Age”, unless Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz and agrees to a deal.
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Euronews explains what’s at stake as the conflict enters a dramatic phase.
Is Trump serious?
Trump has issued ultimatums before, only to back down at the last minute.
On March 21, he threatened to “obliterate” Iranian oil installations if Tehran did not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.
When that deadline expired, however, Trump did not order strikes.
Instead, he announced a five-day pause in air strikes and said he had held “very good and productive conversations” with Iran, revealing for the first time indirect contacts with Tehran.
Trump has a tendency to shift policy positions, but he has now publicly and repeatedly committed to a stance that may be difficult to reverse without losing face.
This leaves him facing what is likely his most consequential decision since the start of the war.
“We have a plan, because of the power of our military, where every bridge in Iran will be decimated … where every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding, and never to be used again,” he said.
Critics, however, argue that this is not a credible military option capable of forcing Iran into submission.
“Even significant strikes on Iran’s infrastructure would not produce capitulation,” Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence operative, wrote on X.
“The assumption that pressure alone can break Tehran is not strategy, it is wishful thinking.”
How did Iran react?
Iran flatly rejected Trump’s ultimatum. Tehran’s response was defiant and escalatory rather than conciliatory. Officials said the ultimatum was unacceptable and emphasized Iran’s right to control the waterway.
General Ali Abdollahi Aliabadi of Iran’s central military command described Trump’s threat as a “helpless, nervous, unbalanced and stupid action”. Echoing the US president’s rhetoric, he added: “the gates of hell will open for you”.
A spokesman for Iran’s military headquarters said: “The illusion of defeating the Islamic Republic of Iran will become a quagmire into which [the US] wants to sink.”
Before Trump’s ultimatum, Iran had repeatedly demanded broader conditions beyond reopening the Strait of Hormuz, including an end to hostilities, the lifting of sanctions and security guarantees.
What has the EU said so far?
European Council President Antonio Costa said Monday that “any targeting of civilian infrastructure, namely energy facilities, is illegal and unacceptable” drawing parallels to the war in Ukraine where Russia has pounded its electricity grid.
Costa said the EU applies the same standards across all conflicts and said the people of Iran are the main victims on an escalation that risks costing the lives of more civilians.
For the rest, most EU leaders have remained on the sidelines and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has not yet commented, although she is expected to participate at an awards ceremony on Tuesday evening in her native Germany.
Would a massive bombing campaign reopen the Strait of Hormuz?
So far, Trump’s threats appear to have made Iran more uncompromising and, at least rhetorically, prepared to retaliate forcefully.
As Trump himself has noted, Iran could use mines, drones and missiles launched from small boats to keep the Strait unsafe. Even after a large-scale bombing campaign targeting key infrastructure, shipping may not resume quickly.
If Tehran were to reopen the Strait in exchange for an end to US bombing, “it would mean a return to the pre-war status quo, falling far short not just of Trump’s shifting demands but even the prospects under negotiation before Washington started the war,” the Washington-based think tank Defense Priorities said in a research note to Euronews.
However, it would represent the best outcome for US interests, while more ambitious goals such as regime change or ending Iran’s nuclear program “are only loosely related,” the note added.
Iran is also unlikely to leave the Strait fully open in exchange for a US ceasefire alone. Israel would probably also need to halt its strikes, which could require Trump to pressure Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — something he has previously been reluctant to do.
Is last-minute diplomacy still possible?
The chances appear slim. Iranian officials have so far declined to accept even a temporary ceasefire in exchange for reopening the Strait.
However, mediators from Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey continue to push for at least a short-term ceasefire and reopening deal.
Whether these efforts will succeed remains unclear.
At Monday’s press conference, Trump did not sound particularly optimistic, pointing to the frustration of his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
Yet he also spoke of “significant” and imminent prospects for peace, saying negotiations were “going fine” and that there was “an active, willing participant on the other side” negotiating “in good faith”.
Asked whether he was escalating the war or winding it down, Trump replied: “I can’t tell you.”
Some observers question his willingness to pursue diplomacy at all, describing his approach as “the obliteration of diplomacy”.
His “disregard for diplomacy was evident in the weeks preceding the February 28 start of the war,” said David Cortright, a visiting scholar at Cornell University’s Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies.
“Discussions were underway, with significant Iranian concessions on the table. Mediators and close observers believed progress was being made, but the US and Israel proceeded with military action,” he added.
What would be the domestic fallout in the US?
The domestic fallout could be severe and multi-layered, according to early polling and political signals.
Public opinion, already negative, could turn more sharply against the war. A recent PBS News/NPR/Marist poll found that 56% of Americans oppose US military action in Iran, while 54% disapprove of Trump’s handling of the issue.
A major escalation could also lead to more US casualties and economic strain, creating political risks for Trump and the Republican Party ahead of the midterm elections.
For many Americans, the most immediate impact is rising fuel prices. The average price at the pump has exceeded $4 per gallon for the first time in nearly four years.
Trump, who made lower petrol prices a key campaign pledge in 2024, has described the increase as temporary.
However, analysts warned that sustained high prices could reduce household spending and increase the risk of broader economic damage.
Politically, Republican leaders have largely backed Trump so far, but divisions are beginning to emerge within his MAGA base, which tends to favor a strong stance but is wary of foreign interventions.
Some religious leaders have also criticized the strikes. US-born Pope Leo said God “does not listen to the prayers of those who dare war” and urged Trump to end the conflict.
Meanwhile, Trump ally-turned-critic Marjorie Taylor Greene, a former Republican congresswoman, criticized the president’s rhetoric.
“Our president is not a Christian, and his words and actions should not be supported by Christians,” she wrote on X.