In Iran they are confident of victory: Impression from Tehran on April 5, 2026.Image: www.imago-images.de
interview
The USA has weakened Iran, but no target is apparent. Middle East expert Andreas Böhm sees Washington at a strategic impasse – and warns of an escalation with unforeseeable consequences.
April 6, 2026, 6:33 p.mApril 6, 2026, 6:33 p.m
Michael Wrase / ch media
There is a risk of further escalation in the American-Israeli war against Iran. If the regime in Tehran does not open the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday morning, the country will “experience hell,” Donald Trump threatened in a social media post that contained many vulgar insults. In an interview with CH Media, HSG professor Andreas Böhm classifies the US President’s latest actions.
Trump wants to bomb Iran back into the “Stone Age” and “blow up” the country, he told CNN. What should we make of the US President’s recent statements?
Andreas Böhm: With his war of aggression, Trump has dealt the final death blow to the liberal world order that has existed since World War II. Its pillars were sovereignty and the prohibition of violence in accordance with the UN Charter. Trump and his claqueurs do not seem to be interested in the fact that these fundamental principles are now being deliberately violated. Nor does it bother them that attacks on schools, universities or civilian infrastructure constitute war crimes.
What military options do Americans have in this war? Will a threatened escalation bring you closer to your goals?
The big problem right from the start was the lack of a clearly defined goal and, as a result, a strategy. Tactically, the Americans have achieved a lot and have massively weakened Iran, but strategically they are in a much worse situation. Now they are desperately looking at how to open the Strait of Hormuz, which is hardly possible militarily.
Is there a “silver bullet” in this war that can force the regime in Tehran to give in?
The Iranians see themselves in a position of strength and will not back down but will respond accordingly to any escalation by Trump. Their goal is to impose prohibitive costs on the USA and its partners and thus achieve a deterrent effect. This war will also end with negotiations, not with Tehran surrendering.
“The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed,” reads this banner in the middle of Tehran.Image: www.imago-images.de
A little more than a month after the start of the war, the question arises as to what the war goals of the Israelis and Americans were and are.
Blinded by the 2025 12-Day War and the capture of Maduro, Trump thought he could overthrow the regime by killing Khamenei – which was completely illusory. Netanyahu’s goals went even further. Whoever was in power in Iran should not be able to attack Israel. Trump’s megalomania was fueled by the idea that he could go down in history as the greatest president of modern times if, after Venezuela, he eliminated the three open opponents, Iran and Cuba. Nobody in his circle speaks against Trump.
Despite massive attacks, the Iranians have not yet surrendered. There are even those who expect that the Iranian regime could emerge stronger from this war.
It will probably survive, but certainly not strengthened. The regime is hated by its own people; even before the war it was neither willing nor able to adequately fulfill essential state functions.
In addition to Iran, the Arab Gulf states are suffering the most in this war. How will Iranian-Arab relations develop after a possible end to the war?
The Gulf states wanted to avoid this war. Your horror scenario would be constant disruption caused by a power vacuum in Iran with spillover into the region. That’s why they will ultimately come to terms with any regime in Tehran that promises stability and leaves them alone. The war with Iran has caused the foundations of the business models of Dubai and Bahrain to shake massively. They cannot afford further instability in the region.
Europe is once again sitting on the bench in this war. What could Europe do to end this war?
Europe cannot end the war, but it can decide to prioritize its own interests and establish its own defense capability. The “rules-based world order” was just a chimera anyway and is now over. Europe must try to save as much of it as possible into a new order. (bzbasel.ch)
Trump insults journalist and appears confident of victory over Iran
Video: Watson/Lucas Zollinger