A US soldier observes an Iranian ship in the Strait of Hormuz.Image: EPA US MARINE CORPS
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is hitting Europe hard. Experts warn: The situation could change in the coming days, especially with diesel.
April 5, 2026, 4:20 p.mApril 5, 2026, 4:20 p.m
Finn Michalski / t-online
The energy crisis resulting from the escalation in the Middle East is reaching Europe with full force. Several tankers carrying diesel and other fuels that were originally scheduled to call at European ports have changed course. Instead of to Amsterdam or other destinations, they are now delivering their cargo to Asia – where buyers are currently paying significantly more.
The tanker “Elka Delphi” was on its way to Europe with around 1.2 million barrels of diesel when it suddenly stopped off the coast of Spain, changed course and turned back again. According to Bloomberg, the cargo was resold along the way. The tanker’s new destination will be Durban in South Africa – a stopover on the way to Asia. According to reports, at least four diesel tankers carrying a total of around 190 million liters of fuel have now been diverted.
The reason is primarily economic: in Asia, significantly higher prices are currently paid for diesel and intermediate products such as gas oil than in Europe. According to the reports, the price difference is the equivalent of around 200 euros per ton. This is a strong incentive for retailers to redirect loads at short notice. The background is the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important shipping routes.
Typically, around 20 percent of global oil production passes through the strait. Large quantities of refined products such as diesel, kerosene and bunker oil for ships are also transported via the route. If this transport route fails, not only will the crude oil markets come under pressure – but above all the supply of fuel that has already been processed.
Nobel Prize winner: Crisis is just beginning
Economist and Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman warns that the crisis is only just beginning. So far, the price jumps have been primarily speculative because there was still a lot of oil on ships that had left the Gulf region before the blockade. But this grace period is now ending. According to his estimates, deliveries for Asia are likely to dry up in the next few days, and for Europe next week. Then the price crisis will turn into a real supply crisis.
A gas station on the A2 motorway service station Erstfeld.Image: keystone
Nervousness is already clearly visible on the markets. The Brent oil price temporarily jumped to $117 per barrel, its highest level since 2022. But the situation is even more serious when it comes to diesel. According to Thomas Puls from the German Economic Institute, refined products are now more scarce than crude oil itself. Diesel, kerosene and bunker oil in particular have shown significantly greater price jumps. This is particularly sensitive for consumers because it is precisely these substances that keep freight transport, logistics and thus large parts of the economy running.
For Germany the situation is contradictory. On the one hand, according to market observers, there is currently no acute physical shortage. Neither Germany nor other European countries purchase large quantities of crude oil directly from the Persian Gulf. On the other hand, Europe is significantly more vulnerable when it comes to diesel than when it comes to crude oil.
The local refineries cannot fully meet demand. According to industry experts, around ten percent of the diesel consumed in the EU has to be imported. Since the loss of Russian supplies, part of this gap has been filled by supplies from the Gulf and India – these very sources are now failing or being diverted to Asia due to higher prices.
Germany still sells diesel
There is also an unusual effect: although there is a risk of shortages in the medium term, Germany is currently even exporting middle distillates such as diesel and heating oil to the Netherlands. According to “n-tv” data from “Argus Media” shows this. The background is therefore not a relaxed supply situation, but rather weak demand in Germany. Many consumers held back from buying heating oil because of the high prices and uncertainty. Dealers in the Netherlands, on the other hand, paid high prices to replenish their stocks – apparently out of concern about a diesel shortage in April.
The last diesel load arrives in Europe around April 10th.Image: keystone
This is exactly when the situation could change in Europe. According to oil market expert Hagen Reiners from Argus Media, the last shipment of diesel that left the Persian Gulf before the blockade will arrive in Europe around April 10th. After that, diesel could become scarce – unless replacement deliveries, for example from the USA, arrive in time. But a global bidding war has now broken out for these quantities too.
Experts therefore expect that the crisis will soon have an impact on consumers’ everyday lives. Unlike crude oil, diesel is not just about gas station prices. Because diesel is the crucial fuel for trucks, construction machinery and large parts of goods transport, there is a risk of rising costs along the entire supply chain. Higher transport costs could also affect food, building materials and other everyday products in the coming weeks.
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