Other coastal states, including Finland, Sweden, Estonia and Belgium, have intercepted suspected shadow fleet vessels in the Baltic and North Seas.
This has “in some cases, forced the Kremlin to adapt by reflagging shadow-fleet tankers … while occasionally deploying military escorts,” Charlie Edwards, a senior fellow for strategy and national security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, wrote in a recent article.
But high-profile boardings like that of the Boracay only stop a fraction of shadow fleet vessels cruising off European coasts. “Few European capitals can sustain a high-tempo posture for long, leaving random boardings looking potentially escalatory without being strategically decisive,” Edwards noted.
Governments across Europe are seeking to firm up their authority. Last week, the U.K. granted British forces new powers to board and detain sanctioned vessels. The Netherlands is mulling legal changes to target ships carrying false flags. The current legislation is “unclear,” said Fred Soons, a professor in international law at Utrecht University.
The EU, which has banned hundreds of suspected shadow fleet vessels from its ports, is also pushing a new sanctions package targeting maritime services.
The aim is to make it harder and more expensive for those ships to secure insurance, crews and other services, making the shadow fleet costlier to run. But a veto by Hungary has blocked the plan, while the rising price of oil caused by the war in the Middle East risks undermining the EU’s sanctions.