The war in the Middle East is not leaving the Swiss population indifferent.Image: keystone
The Swiss population has mixed feelings about the new world situation. While doubts about its ability to defend itself grow, confidence in its internal strength remains high.
March 22, 2026, 6:00 p.mMarch 22, 2026, 6:00 p.m
The world is in a state of upheaval – with noticeable consequences for Switzerland. The 6th Opportunity Barometer therefore focuses on the country’s resilience and shows what conclusions the population draws from the changed global conditions and what the current mood is.
The representative survey of the “Strategiedialog21” foundation fund, carried out by the Sotomo opinion institutepaints a differentiated picture: The Swiss population continues to trust in its democratic institutions. At the same time, however, it is clear that many people clearly recognize the vulnerability of our country.
Whether security, trade, neutrality or prosperity: the question of what defines Switzerland and holds it together in times of global upheaval remains complex. These are the most important findings from the opportunity barometer:
Fear of attacks but belief in inner strength
Around three quarters of Swiss people believe that their country is ill-equipped to meet the challenges of a world in transition. These challenges include migration and refugee movements as well as the strengthening of autocratically ruled states. This also includes political pressure from major powers, cyber attacks and the increase in military conflicts.
The key finding, however, is that the vast majority of the Swiss population is of the opinion that the Swiss army is not equipped to repel a conventional or hybrid attack. 70 percent also assume that Switzerland is already the target of foreign influence through disinformation campaigns.
Despite this poor report, over ninety percent of those surveyed in Switzerland feel at least somewhat safe. According to the study, this apparent contradiction can be explained by the fact that the Swiss population doubts their country’s ability to defend itself, but at the same time very few people fear a military attack on Switzerland.
The feeling of security is, if anything, clouded by crime and violence within and by feared social divisions. The population is more concerned about this than about external security. Other internal factors, such as the rule of law functioning in Switzerland or its political stability, contribute to strengthening the feeling of security.
Neutrality, on the other hand, is an important factor for their own feeling of security for less than a quarter. All of this shows that Switzerland derives its resilience far less from its ability to meet external challenges than from its internal strengths.
Most people see Switzerland as not sufficiently equipped to deal with autocrats. However, almost three quarters of those surveyed believe that Swiss democracy is resistant to authoritarian tendencies.
More cooperation with neighboring countries, the EU and NATO
The Swiss population believes that Switzerland’s international reputation has changed in many ways in a negative rather than a positive way. This applies in particular to Swiss neutrality, whose reputation has deteriorated from the majority’s perspective.
At the same time, the population is willing to dare to cooperate more. Over 80 percent perceive a high level of correspondence between Switzerland’s basic values and those of Northern, Western and Central Europe.
These regions are also considered the most reliable trading partners. In addition to other highly developed small and medium-sized democracies, China and India are also among the states that respondents believe have become more important as partners. Only 4 percent see the USA under President Trump as a reliable and fair partner.
When it comes to security issues, a widespread need for more international cooperation becomes apparent. Almost three quarters call for stronger cooperation with neighboring countries. More than half want stronger security policy cooperation with the EU and NATO. For the majority of those surveyed, the EU is seen not only as an important trading partner, but also as a cooperation partner on security issues.
New alliance and flexible neutrality
The Swiss population wants out of the Redoubt. More than two thirds are in favor of forming a new organization of small and medium-sized democracies. Even half of the supporters of the national conservative SVP support such an alliance.
When it comes to dealing with major powers, a majority of those surveyed would only like to see stronger cooperation with the EU. The population would like to see cooperation at a consistent level with India and China. Those surveyed want less cooperation with the USA and Russia.
Three out of four respondents have a positive attitude towards new free trade agreements – but not unconditionally. Minimum standards in the protection of human rights and the environment should have to be adhered to.
A majority of 56 percent believe that Switzerland should interpret neutrality more flexibly. A majority hopes that a flexible interpretation of neutrality will provide the opportunity for increased security policy cooperation with the NATO states. Many respondents also see an improvement in Switzerland’s international reputation.
The Swiss population wants more flexibility and realism when it comes to their own armaments and security technologies. 58 percent are of the opinion that Switzerland should reduce political obstacles in order to strengthen its own arms industry.
80 percent of those surveyed believe that Switzerland should invest in arms and security technologies that can also be used for civil purposes. Armament and security technologies are seen as providing impetus for civil uses. This can be understood as a clear commitment to a strong Swiss arms industry.
Conclusion: More cooperation instead of isolation
The opportunity barometer shows: The Swiss population is aware of the changed world situation. It does not demand symbolic politics, but wants structural adjustments. This includes a credible modernization of defense capabilities, a strengthening of technological sovereignty, a strategically oriented foreign trade and the institutional anchoring of security policy coordination.
«The population sees clear deficits, especially with regard to their country’s defense capability. This makes them all the more confident in the stable democratic order and robust economy of their country,” says Sotomo founder Michael Hermann.
The fact that the Swiss population trusts in their country’s internal strengths could lead to a certain nonchalance in the face of external threats. “However, from the perspective of the majority, trust in the resilience of Swiss democracy and the economy is now a foundation for more cooperation instead of isolation.”