interview
The political scientist and Iran expert Mahdi Rezaei-Tazik from the University of Bern explains in an interview how the power apparatus defies the US-Israeli attacks, why Europe is also suffering – and what could happen next with the democracy movement.
03/22/2026, 06:3703/22/2026, 07:58
“Killed”: One red circle after another fills the organizational chart of the Iranian leadership. For three weeks now, Israel and the USA have been specifically hunting down the heads of the theocracy.
Portrait of the killed revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei in front of the burning Shahran oil depot in Tehran.Image: keystone
It hasn’t helped much so far. The powerful Revolutionary Guards are still firing rockets and drones at the Gulf states. The ongoing blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is causing oil prices to skyrocket.
On Friday, Tehran even threatened civilians around the world: “Parks, recreational areas and tourist destinations” will no longer be safe for Iran’s enemies, said the top military spokesman. There is no quick end to the war in sight – instead there is a threat of global expansion.
Despite the most violent bombings and the killing of its most important figures, the Iranian regime has not wavered so far. Why is that?
Mahdi Rezaei-Tazik: The regime in Iran should be understood as a deeply rooted, decentralized power structure that has been preparing for a major war against the USA and Israel for decades. If Iran were actually ruled by one person alone, it would have been overthrown shortly after the death of Ali Khamenei.
Did Trump underestimate the mullahs?
Yes. This is also because the country has not been ruled by the mullahs for decades, but in reality by the Revolutionary Guards. In the past, they have repeatedly threatened to regionalize the war and close the Strait of Hormuz in the event of an attack. Trump probably didn’t expect them to actually implement all of this.
The USA is therefore waging a war at the expense of Europe, which is already dependent on oil and gas from the Gulf region because of the war in Ukraine. The increase in the price of energy sources, the lack of resources from the Europeans to secure the Strait of Hormuz, but also the fear of a total destabilization of Iran – and the associated waves of refugees – are just a few reasons why Europe is clearly rejecting Trump.
Mahdi Rezaei-Tazik
is a political scientist at the University of Bern. His research focuses on modern and modern Iranian history, criticism of religion, the history of ideas (intellectual history) and the history of the Middle East’s interdependence with Europe.
Image: University of Bern
Trump and Netanyahu call on Iranians to protest again. Should they do that?
There are at least five reasons why people will not take to the streets: First, war creates a deep sense of insecurity. Secondly, the regime has been threatening anyone who demonstrates with death or stigmatization as an enemy of the state for days. Thirdly, many are torn between rejection of the regime and love for the homeland; They have to watch as the country’s infrastructure is destroyed under the pretext of fighting the regime. At the same time, many recognize the regime’s resilience – which strengthens national feelings and a certain level of cohesion in the country. Fourth, some fear the collapse of Iran. Fifth, the regime fills the streets with its supporters and therefore has them under control.
Didn’t count on the regime’s resilience: US President Donald Trump.Image: keystone
Many opponents of the regime hoped for an attack by the Americans, also to support democratic aspirations in Iran. Does the ongoing war strengthen or weaken the democracy movement?
The history of the region shows clearly that democracy cannot be bombed into existence. In my opinion, Iran is no exception either. In addition, at least the USA has now publicly announced that democratization is not its goal at all.
Did Trump fail in Iran?
Until now, yes. The regime remains in power, controls the Strait of Hormuz, energy prices are rising, and it is threatening retaliation if Iran’s infrastructure is attacked again – with missiles and drones alone. The airspace, on the other hand, is largely unprotected because Iran has no modern fighter aircraft. Trump still seems to think in the classic patterns of warfare, although today’s wars are increasingly being fought asymmetrically.
Smoke and flames over Tehran after an Israeli airstrike on an oil depot.Image: keystone
What trump card does the regime still have in its hand?
In addition to the Strait of Hormuz, another important strait: the Bab al-Mandab, in German: the Gate of Tears. A nearly 30 kilometer wide strait that connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis in Yemen, allies of the regime in Tehran, could block them and thus make oil exports from Saudi Arabia more difficult.
Trump is sending two different signals: on the one hand, he has just deployed 2,500 soldiers to the region who could launch a ground operation. On the other hand, he repeatedly indicates that he wants to end the war soon because, in his opinion, Iran has been defeated. If Trump stops now, won’t the mullahs emerge from the war even stronger?
Although the regime is weakened, it will present itself as a victor because it has survived the largest war to date. If it reaches out to the population, initiates a social opening and, in negotiations after the end of the war, achieves an easing of sanctions and thus improves the economy, then it could actually emerge stronger.
Do you think it is realistic that the regime will moderate itself? The mullahs have just made Mojtaba Khamenei, a hardliner, the new revolutionary leader.
None of us know whether Mojtaba Khamenei is still alive or whether he is capable of leading. We do not know whether the letter published on the Revolutionary Guards channel in his name actually came from him. The Revolutionary Guards remain the most powerful institution in the country. So far I don’t see any division among the Guards. They also operate in a very decentralized manner. The high-ranking ones are eliminated, but they still work. I cannot judge whether the Revolutionary Guards will split sooner or later or whether one wing will declare itself neutral in favor of a democratic transition. It is also not impossible that a wing willing to engage in dialogue will actually prevail and come to power.
After Iranian attack: Smoke rises from an oil facility in Fujairah (United Arab Emirates).Image: keystone
Do we now need a ceasefire or more bombing?
Some fear that the continuation of the war will lead to the disintegration of the country. A part of the population does not want to gamble with the fate of the country, lest Iran be completely destroyed and rendered unable to defend itself surrounded by autocracies. Ultimately, the country – regardless of the regime – needs its infrastructure and defense apparatus. In the beginning, a lot of people were for the war. But the more infrastructure is destroyed and fatalities are reported, the more urgent the question becomes for many: How am I supposed to live here in the future? 70 percent of Iran’s energy needs are covered by gas. The attacks on the gas plants therefore also affect the population directly.
Does the democracy movement in Iran still have a chance?
Iran’s future is secular, definitely. Iran will be a secular state. People have seen what an Islamic regime, the state religion, can do. But it is difficult to say when a real transformation will succeed. To do this, the army and the Revolutionary Guards would have to declare themselves neutral. The opposition at home and abroad must cooperate and not try to seize power. Reza Pahlavi is supported by many media outlets. But without the opposition at home, I also see major problems for him in uniting people behind him. (aargauerzeitung.ch)