An Israeli soldier next to a fired Iranian missile.Image: keystone
analysis
Mar 20, 2026, 5:17 p.mMar 20, 2026, 5:17 p.m
At the beginning of the attack by Israel and the USA on Iran, Donald Trump spoke of a “short trip”. There was never an official war aim. But it was clear that the operation, at least on the part of the USA, was only intended to be short-lived.
Three weeks later, the conflict continues to be bitter and the scenario of a short military intervention has passed its shelf life. But what could happen next in Iran and the Middle East? These scenarios are discussed by experts and this is how likely they are:
Regional war
The skyline of Doha: The Gulf states have not yet responded directly to the attacks from Iran.Image: keystone
Iran shelled nine more countries 24 hours after the first attacks. Israel has been waging a parallel campaign against the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon since the beginning of the war. Several experts now fear that the Houthi militia, which is allied with Iran, could also take action in Yemen. This would spread the conflict to the Red Sea.
This and Iran’s ongoing shelling of infrastructure in the Gulf region increase the likelihood that the Gulf states will be drawn ever deeper into hostilities.
A “horizontal escalation” is being actively promoted by the Iranian regime in particular, as Middle East expert Mona Yacoubian writes in a commentary for the US think tank Center For Strategic & International Studies:
“Iran’s horizontal escalation over hundreds of miles is unprecedented and underscores Tehran’s strategy to foment conflict across the region to spread widespread fear and essentially turn the Middle East into a ‘no-go zone’.”
The economic think tank Global Trade Alert classifies this development in their “Iran Conflict Scenario Monitor” as the most likely. If the war continues to move along these lines, oil prices are likely to rise further, travel to or via this region will become more difficult and political pressure on Israel and the USA will increase.
Civil War
Photo from 2019: There is still no trace of the new Iranian leader Moschtaba Khamenei.Image: tasnim news/wikimedia commons
The US administration continues to hope that the Iranian people will rise up against the regime and overthrow it. The Iranian government is actually under pressure after the killings of numerous high-ranking officials. Things remain quiet around Moschtaba Khamenei, who took over as Iran’s supreme leader after his father was killed. “The regime cannot prove that its supreme leader is in control,” say the experts at Global Trade Alert in their latest briefing.
But: There is no united opposition. If the Iranian regime actually falls, the question arises as to who will take over the reins of government. The Iran expert at the University of Chicago puts it this way:
“Parts of the population support the restoration of the monarchy and hope that Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former Shah of Iran, could return and act as interim leader. Others advocate a democratic republic as the successor to the Islamic Republic. Since Iranian society also consists of many different ethnic communities and religious minorities, a new system would have to take this diversity into account.”
There is a risk of a civil war like that in Syria from 2011 to 2024. It is impossible to predict whether pro-democracy forces will actually prevail there. After the revolution of 1979, which was also supported by very different groups, the mullahs reaped the benefits and installed the current regime.
So far, however, there are no signs that any kind of opposition to the regime is emerging in Iran. The ongoing and sometimes indiscriminate air strikes on Iranian cities are making demonstrations even more difficult, as several experts on site report. As in January, the Iranian regime responded to the first signs of such protests with bloody violence and executions.
A significant weakening of the Iranian regime is therefore considered quite likely, but the question remains: What happens next?
USA declares victory and withdraws
Could stop the US attacks with one sentence: Donald Trump.Image: keystone
Just a week after the US military began its attacks on Iran, Donald Trump and various US government officials had already declared victory. The American ambassador to the UN congratulated Trump on a “superior victory that has never been seen before in modern military history.”
Two weeks have passed since then and the bombs continue to fall. On Thursday, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told US media that there was no timetable for an end to the attacks. And further: “Ultimately, it is at the president’s discretion when we say: ‘Hey, we achieved what we needed to achieve.'” But the Iran war would not end with such a declaration; the USA would simply leave the conduct of the war to the Israelis.
However, Global Trade Alert believes such a development is relatively unlikely in the next few weeks. Hegseth’s statements support this assessment. Rising oil prices and further losses on the part of the US armed forces could increase the pressure on Donald Trump to such an extent that this step is ultimately the only option left to him.
This way of declaring a conflict over would be no stranger to the United States. In 1973, then US President Richard Nixon declared that the US armed forces had achieved all their objectives in Vietnam and were therefore withdrawing. The USA thus left the conflict to South Vietnam, which collapsed under the onslaught of North Vietnamese troops by 1975.
Back to the negotiating table
From the negotiating table straight into war: the Iranian delegation in Geneva at the end of February.Image: keystone
On February 27th, representatives from the USA and Iran sat opposite each other in Geneva. The Iranian foreign minister spoke of “progress” on Friday, and on Saturday Trump and Israel surprised the world with their attacks on Iran.
Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi, who was a mediator at the talks, said this week in The Economist sharp words about the abrupt termination of diplomatic efforts: “It was a shock, but no surprise, when on February 28th – just a few hours after the most recent and most substantial talks – Israel and the USA once again carried out an illegal military strike against peace, which for a short time actually seemed possible.”
Although Oman stands out among the Gulf states with this clear condemnation of the US attack, it is nevertheless clear that Israel and the USA have not only offended Iran, but also possible mediators.
Whether Iran is even willing to return to the negotiating table after the killing of various high-ranking figures such as Ali Khamenei and Ari Larijani is a completely different matter. For these reasons, this scenario is currently considered rather unlikely.
stalemate
Trench war in Ukraine: Is the same scenario threatening in Iran?Image: keystone
Ukraine has been in a bloody battle of attrition since the Russian attack four years ago, with hundreds of thousands of dead soldiers and civilians on both sides. Is a similar scenario now looming in Iran? In fact, many experts agree that the current situation bears all the signs of a stalemate.
Nevertheless, a stalemate lasting over the next few weeks has been developed from the most likely to the least likely scenario in the Iran Conflict Scenario Monitor over the last two weeks. Why?
In short: The signs are currently pointing to escalation and not to freezing the conflict. Iran continues to attack a wide variety of targets in the Middle East and threatens retaliation. Donald Trump, on the other hand, is trying to get other parties such as NATO or Japan to get involved in the conflict. He is concerned with ensuring shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
And this is exactly where the problem lies: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz puts pressure on the price of oil, which has an impact on the global economy, which in turn leads to domestic and international pressure on the US government. This increases the likelihood that there will be either a clarification or further escalation in the region, which contradicts a stalemate in this sense.