China’s foreign trade increased significantly more than expected at the beginning of the year.
03/10/2026, 07:0303/10/2026, 07:03
As the customs authority in Beijing announced, exports in January and February increased by 21.8 percent in US dollars compared to the same period last year.
The Shanghai cargo port.Image: keystone
Analysts had previously only expected an increase of 7.1 percent in exports in the first two months of the year compared to the same period last year.
Market observers expected an increase of 6.3 percent for China’s imports. Due to the Spring Festival and the following holidays, which this year were in February, the People’s Republic publishes its foreign trade figures for the first two months of the year together to avoid distortions.
Impact of the Iran conflict
The rapid increase in foreign trade occurred before the US-Israeli attack on Iran, which severely affected shipping in the region, especially in the Strait of Hormuz. The first effects could be seen in the March data for China’s foreign trade. The People’s Republic mainly imports oil from Iran.
A year ago, China’s foreign trade was still under the influence of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which resulted in an exchange of blows with surcharges and counter-surcharges from the world’s two largest economies. Trump is expected in China at the end of March. The customs dispute, in which there is still a pause, as well as the trade relationship between the two countries are likely to be high on the agenda.
China’s exports to the US fell 11 percent in January and February compared with the same period in 2025, according to Beijing customs data. Imports from the United States even fell by 26.7 percent.
China wants to strengthen demand
China’s National People’s Congress is still meeting in Beijing. The government announced measures for this year and the five-year plan until 2030 to support weak consumption. However, Beijing provided few details, leaving observers skeptical about whether China’s export-driven economy will abandon its dependence on exports to global markets.
The low demand meant that imports barely increased compared to exports last year. In the end, China achieved a historic trade surplus of $1.2 trillion.
Record surplus is a thorn in the side of trading partners
Trade Minister Wang Wentao said during the People’s Congress on the record surplus that Beijing had taken note of the views of its trading partners. According to Wang, China wants to implement a balanced development of imports and exports.
China had set itself the lowest growth target in decades at “4.5 to 5 percent” this year. This could indicate that Beijing is preparing for a weaker economy in the future. For years, a booming construction industry contributed to high growth rates. But the industry has been in crisis for a long time.
Further problems at home
Property owners are unsettled by falling housing prices. Weakened consumer confidence is causing people to save more. In addition, there is high youth unemployment and a poorly developed social security system, which is why families save money for bad times.
Companies in the People’s Republic compete in parallel in industries such as the automobile industry in a ruinous price war that is causing the margins of many manufacturers to melt away. Some try to get rid of their goods abroad or sell at cheap prices to reduce inventory. The government wants to tackle the problem of such excess capacity in 2026 and promises to intensively regulate the competition, which is becoming independent and fruitless. It says that monopolies and market distortions should be combated more strongly. (sda/dpa)