What is happening in the Strait of Hormuz is influencing oil prices worldwide.Image: keystone
Gasoline prices here have barely risen yet. But that could change.
March 7, 2026, 2:05 p.mMarch 7, 2026, 2:05 p.m
Niklaus Vontobel, Stefan Ehrbar, Pascal Michel / ch media
Donald Trump, self-proclaimed peace president, has dragged his country into a war against Iran. The war has already cost many innocent lives. For example, the United States accidentally hit an Iranian primary school, killing around 150 people and injuring 100 more, according to the New York Times. But at the same time the war will have financial consequences, including in Switzerland.
The global price of oil is already significantly higher than before the start of the war and could rise much further. This has an impact on the prices of gasoline and heating oil in this country. “Swiss prices depend entirely on the world market price for crude oil,” says Ueli Bamert, spokesman for Avenergy Suisse, the association of Swiss petroleum importers. “If the global price of oil rises, gasoline or heating oil will inevitably become more expensive for us; If it goes down, they get cheaper, it’s that simple.”
The gas stations usually pass on such oil price increases to customers after around three days, energy specialist Laurent Horvath told the daily newspaper “Le Nouvelliste”. According to TCS figures, a liter of unleaded 95 recently cost 1.74 francs. This number is likely to rise in the next few days if the escalation in Iran continues. Will the price climb again to well over 2 francs, as in the aftermath of the Ukraine war?
That depends on how severely and for how long shipping traffic on the Strait of Hormuz will be restricted. There are currently massively fewer ships coming through than before the start of the war, at times 80 percent fewer. The Bloomberg news agency headlined: “The Iran war brings shipping traffic to a standstill in the Strait of Hormuz.”
The Strait of Hormuz: a strategically important bottleneck
picture: chm
This has consequences for the price of oil. At the beginning of the year, the oil price was still at $60. By the end of this week it was already close to $90. If this standstill continues for another five weeks in the Strait of Hormuz, then, according to the investment bank Goldman Sachs, the price of oil will rise significantly again: a barrel of Brent will then cost around $100. The Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi warns in the “Financial Times” that prices could reach $150 per barrel in just two to three weeks. This will “bring economies around the world to the ground”.
On the other hand, Swiss drivers receive some relief from other sources or at least no further burden.
According to the gas station provider Volenergy, freight costs in Switzerland are currently stable and, alongside sales and taxes, they are a crucial cost item. Because Swiss gasoline comes into the country via the Rhine. If the river has little water, ships can load less and freight costs rise. Switzerland had to experience this in the summer of 2022, when a severe drought severely restricted shipping on the Rhine. Because Putin’s war of aggression also drove up oil prices, gasoline prices rose significantly.
The strong franc also brings some relief. Because crude oil is traded in U.S. dollars, the weakening U.S. currency can contribute to lower prices at the pump.
But what remains crucial is what happens on the Strait of Hormuz. It is the bottleneck through which a large part of the oil produced in the Middle East reaches the world market. Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq – all of these important producing countries export the majority of their oil through Hormuz. Overall, the volume of oil transported through Hormuz covers approximately 20 percent of global oil consumption.
Iran wants to force Trump to back down
There are hardly any alternatives. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates do have pipelines in the country. But their capacity is limited to 5.5 million barrels per day. For comparison: around 20 million barrels are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz every day. And passages can be prevented relatively easily. The road is only 54 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, and the largest tankers, the so-called supertankers, can sometimes only navigate a corridor that is four kilometers wide.
By blocking the Strait of Hormuz as much as possible, Iran wants to force Trump to back down. A high oil price damages large parts of the US economy, increases gasoline prices in the US and thus angers Trump’s voters. Trump has therefore announced that he wants to reopen the street. The USA would have the tankers accompanied by its navy and would also insure them cheaply.
However, it is unlikely that this will lead to a large-scale resumption of shipping traffic. According to the Financial Times, the insurance would be extremely expensive. And the danger to life and limb remains. On Thursday, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards announced that they had hit an oil tanker in the Persian Gulf with missiles.