Catching up over dinner in an upmarket Brussels restaurant before Christmas, Phil Hogan told a tight-knit group of confidants he was mulling something of a political comeback.
Hogan has a tradition of getting together with his old team from his days in the European Commission for a meal every year around December.
The group were eating in Le Monde est Petit, a popular spot that previously held a Michelin star, located close to the EU quarter in the Belgian capital.
Hogan told his former colleagues he was thinking about a run for the top job in the United Nations agriculture and food security agency in Rome.
It was something the former minister and EU commissioner had been considering since about September when the idea was first floated to him by some contacts in the European political system.
The role of director general of the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) is elected every four years.
All 193 countries who are members of the organisation hold one vote. The last time a European held the role was 1975. The agency’s mission is to tackle world hunger and food insecurity.
Hogan, who served as commissioner for agriculture in the EU’s executive body from 2014 to 2019, had soundings taken in Dublin and Brussels.
He would first need to secure the support of the Government to nominate him as Ireland’s candidate. The former Fine Gael politician would then need to win over other EU capitals to emerge as Europe’s pick for the job.
Minister for Agriculture Martin Heydon had been open to Ireland putting somebody forward in the race.
“It was known that this position was coming up,” one Government source said.
On Tuesday the Government nominated Hogan as Ireland’s candidate to contest the election for the senior UN job.
[ Campaign for UN job will test Phil Hogan’s reputation as back room dealmakerOpens in new window ]
Hogan took advice from Catherine Geslain-Lanéelle, a senior EU official who had been Europe’s candidate for the job the last time it mounted a joint campaign in 2019. The French official had been beaten by China’s nominee Qu Dongyu, whose second term finishes in the summer of 2027, creating the vacancy.
Inside the Berlaymont, Christophe Hansen, the current EU agriculture commissioner, was believed to be supportive of Hogan entering the fray.
Antennas in Government Buildings were attuned to the potential political risk.
Hogan had resigned as EU trade commissioner in 2020 amid fierce public backlash for attending an Oireachtas golf society dinner at a time when Covid restrictions on large gatherings were in place. He stepped down over a changing account of whether he complied with travel restrictions after flying into Ireland.
There were memories too of the botched attempt to appoint former government minister Katherine Zappone as a UN special envoy, which blew up spectacularly and dogged the previous coalition for the summer of 2021.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Tánaiste Simon Harris were both keen to make sure a nominee came through an independent process for the FAO job.
There was a conscious effort to avoid creating any perception that could be used by Sinn Féin to attack a nomination as a jobs-for-the-boys stroke.
The Department of Agriculture put out an open call in January, which drew several applications.
Hogan was recommended as the top choice, following an interview by a panel that included a former senior civil servant, an industry expert and a human resources adviser. A Cabinet meeting signed off on the nomination this week.
Several senior Government sources said Hogan would largely be left to run the campaign for the UN job on his own.
European governments will try to unite behind a single candidate in the international race to avoid splitting the vote. Maurizio Martina, deputy FAO director and a former agriculture minister, has been put forward by the Italian government.
“There are two credible candidates, both of which will have been laying the groundwork for themselves inside the commission and other EU institutions,” one commission source said.
“Hogan’s competitive advantage is that he has a well-stocked book of contacts, from his time as trade commissioner and even more so from his time as agriculture commissioner,” the official said.
The Italian candidate has the benefit of knowing the inner workings of the UN agency, having served as deputy director general since 2021 and the advantage of being backed by a big EU member state.
Other contenders may yet emerge.
Hogan travelled to a FAO conference in Brazil this week to press the flesh with politicians from South America, one key constituency.
It is expected several competitors will declare from Africa and other corners of the world in the coming weeks and months, competing with a European candidate for votes.
A speech Hogan delivered last June gives some indication of what tack he may take when lobbying governments in Africa, or the wider developing world, for their support.
The Co Kilkenny man was critical that Europe’s relationship with Africa was still not one of “mutual respect”.
It was investment and trade that would create jobs rather than traditional aid, he told an event organised by LadyAgri, a non-profit organisation set up by Cork woman Hilary Barry to help women “agri-entrepreneurs” in Africa.
The projected population boom on the African continent over the next two decades meant there was an “urgency to ensure that we avoid food shortages,” Hogan said.
Come the middle of next year Big Phil could find himself heading up the UN agency charged with doing something about that.