QatarEnergy announced on Monday that it had to halt production due to military attacks.Image: keystone
analysis
The Iran war is hitting global energy markets to the core. Gas is becoming so expensive that experts are alarmed. When will the extreme price jumps reach consumers?
March 4, 2026, 10:17 amMarch 4, 2026, 10:17 am
Kolja Rudzio, Marlies Uken / Zeit Online
It is not good news coming from the Gulf region – the war is affecting the local people, but also the global energy markets. QatarEnergy, the world’s second-largest liquefied natural gas producer, announced on Monday that it had to stop production due to military attacks. On Tuesday, the state-owned company even upped the ante and announced that it would stop production of further chemicals. In addition, around 150 oil and gas tankers are now stuck off the Strait of Hormuz and cannot deliver their valuable goods. According to Unicredit, Qatar alone accounts for 93 percent of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports through the Strait of Hormuz.
The result: a price shock on the stock market. The European gas price for deliveries in April rose by more than 100 percent on Tuesday compared to Friday; on Tuesday morning it was around 58 euros. This is the highest level in three years. “There is panic on the LNG market,” says Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, a company that specializes in the energy markets.
The concern is that a price war is now starting between Asia and Europe for remaining gas quantities. So far, Asian countries have mainly bought from the Gulf, while the Europeans have relied on the USA. If Qatar fails, competition for available quantities on the global market will increase. The competition for the remaining cubic meters would “lead to upward pressure” on the price of gas, writes Unicredit in an analysis. However, the situation is not yet as tense as in 2022, when after Russia’s attack on Ukraine, stock market prices shot up to more than 330 euros per megawatt hour. At that time, Russia threatened to cut gas volumes via Nordstream 1; there was fear that no more gas would come from Russia.
In Germany, the federal government has responded to the jump in gas prices by reviving the crisis task force that was already active during the gas shortage. On Wednesday, the Ministry of Economics will also inform the Bundestag’s Committee on Economic Affairs and Energy about the current situation. A gas coordination group is also due to meet at the EU level in the middle of this week.
Be it the ministry, the Federal Network Agency or the gas dealers: everyone emphasizes that Germany is far from experiencing a gas shortage. “There are currently no direct restrictions on LNG purchases at Uniper,” said a spokeswoman for Uniper, one of the largest gas traders in Europe. There are no LNG deliveries planned from the affected region that would have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Price guarantees protect consumers
So there is no shortage of gas. The problem is rather the high price. Because 15 percent of the gas is also used to produce electricity. “If the price of gas rises, it has direct consequences for the price of electricity,” says Leon Hirth, energy expert at the Hertie School of Governance. “The generation costs in a gas power plant have already increased from yesterday to today from 80 to 100 euros per megawatt hour.” Private consumers are protected by price guarantees in their electricity and gas contracts. However, the price jumps have a direct impact on industry.
The rising gas price also creates false incentives to fill gas storage facilities that have been emptied in winter. Actually – i.e. in the world before 2022 – the price would now be low because gas demand from heating customers falls in spring and summer. The gas traders would store the gas cheaply and sell it at high prices next winter. The storage season officially begins on April 1st.
The exact opposite is currently happening in some places: dealers are selling their gas from the storage facilities. And this despite the fact that storage levels are already extremely low in Germany they are even emptyer than ever. Of course, there is always storage and withdrawal, but apparently, according to the industry, some gas traders are taking advantage of the prospect of short-term profits and preferring to sell their cheaply purchased gas on the market at the current crisis prices. In times of crisis there are always those who profit.
Lack of penalties for empty memory
The lower the filling levels, the more difficult it is to fill the storage tanks again over the summer. Finally, there are binding specifications as to how high the storage level must be; at the beginning of winter it should be at least 80 percent, according to the word “Gas Storage Level Ordinance”. However, politics has never defined who is ultimately responsible: the government? The gas traders? And so there are no options for sanctions if the filling levels are not reached. What is clear is that in such a case, the company Trading Hub Europe fills the storage facilities at state expense. And that can quickly cost billions of euros.
So do we need new rules, perhaps even a state strategic reserve? Austria holds a gas reserve so that the country can bridge two cold winter months. Gas traders like Uniper have been discussing a solution with politicians for weeks and would like a levy to finance it. Germany’s Economics Minister Katherina Reiche (CDU) continues to insist on the market. “Storage filling must be done on the market; government interventions can support or supplement this if necessary, but not replace it,” said a spokeswoman on Tuesday.
This article was first published on Zeit Online. Watson may have changed headings and subheadings. Click here for the original.