Iranians loyal to the regime protested in Tehran on Saturday against the attacks on their country.Image: keystone
analysis
Donald Trump has made good on his threat and is attacking Iran together with Israel. He seems to be aiming for regime change, but that could be a drag.
February 28, 2026, 4:10 p.mFebruary 28, 2026, 4:10 p.m
In recent days there have been some indications that US President Donald Trump wants to take military action against Iran. He sent out a force, including two aircraft carriers. The parallel negotiations in Geneva about the Iranian nuclear program have so far led to nothing to no tangible result. A war was in the air.
On Saturday morning, Trump got serious. In conjunction with Israel, he ordered Operation “Epic Wrath” with air strikes on targets in Iran. This scenario had been circulating for some time. But one question remains unanswered: What is it all about? Or as the “New York Times” put it in an editorial comment put it: “Why did you start this war, Mr. President?”
Video: Watson/Michael Shepherd
Trump spoke in a video from a preemptive striketo eliminate the immediate threat from the Iranian leadership. This message was addressed to the American people, who in polls had clearly opposed military action. However, one may ask oneself how concrete this danger actually is.
Help promised
The regime in Tehran has no means to directly threaten the USA. Not even a nuclear bomb. Even Trump said in the video that the Iranians “will never have a nuclear weapon.” His real goal can therefore only be regime change. “The hour of your freedom has come,” the US President addressed the Iranian people.
He apparently felt under pressure after promising help during the brutally suppressed protests in January but failing to deliver. But in doing so, Trump is taking an enormous risk. He is playing “with very high stakes,” said Richard Haass, one of the most respected foreign policy experts in the USA, on the “Morning Joe” program on MS NOW.
A “Venezuela solution”?
Because the Iranian regime is resilient. It has just proven that it is willing to massacre its own people for its survival. And it seems better prepared than in the Twelve Day War last Junewrites “Spiegel”. It is still unclear whether Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s supreme leader, was evacuated or killed.
In the Israeli city of Haifa, people are evacuated from a house hit by a rocket.Image: keystone
Those in power have been weakened by massive economic sanctions and last year’s war, but not defeated. Many people hope that Trump will deliver them from the reign of terror, but that is easier said than done. Although he offered them the prospect of taking over the government, he could be content with a “Venezuela solution”.
Revolutionary Guard in power
In this scenario, the regime could stay in power with some cosmetic adjustments, such as abandoning nuclear weapons and relaxing social conditions. The Revolutionary Guard is at the center, said a diplomat with experience in Iran recently in an informal conversation. For many experts, it has long been the real center of power.
The theocracy is therefore only a facade. Tearing these down wouldn’t be a big problem. But the Iranian people would be just as left out in the cold as the people in Venezuela, where Trump appears to be coming to terms with the Chavista government. But there is no guarantee that even such a “minimal solution” can be achieved.
Goals are “poorly defined”
US military officials, including Chief of Staff General Dan Caine, have warned that US forces are waging an all-air war could only last a few days at most. And ground troops are likely to be taboo for Trump out of consideration for his MAGA base. There is a danger that the war will spread across the entire region – or end without any tangible result.
It would be a scenario in the spirit of the Iranian leadership. She just doesn’t have to lose. The New York Times therefore takes the president seriously: “Trump’s dealings with Iran are careless. His goals are ill-defined. He has not managed to obtain the necessary support at home and abroad for a successful outcome.
“No necessary war”
During the 2024 election campaign, Donald Trump promised to end wars rather than start them. Since taking office, he has ordered military strikes several times. “His appetite for military intervention grows as he eats,” concludes the New York Times. The president does not treat wars as “the serious matter that they are.”
Or as Richard Haass pointedly said: “This is not a necessary war.” Victims on all sides pay the price. And in the end, perhaps Donald Trump himself.