The war between Israel and the USA and Iran is escalating and events are happening rapidly. In an interview with SRF, Islamic scholar Reinhard Schulze provides initial assessments of what this means for the regime in Iran.
February 28, 2026, 2:21 p.mFebruary 28, 2026, 2:21 p.m
Islamic scholar Reinhard Schulze. Image: keystone
This is what Schulze said:
… on the regime question
“The Iranian regime will have noticed that it is no longer just about the nuclear issue, but also about the regime issue,” said the Islamic scholar in an SRF special broadcast on the subject. The first wave of attacks by Israel and the USA was clearly directed against representatives of the regime.
For the Iranian regime, this means that their power is now also being questioned from outside. From his point of view, the regime must now do everything it can to “ensure survival in some form”.
Expert: Iran can do little to counter the USA militarily
From an expert’s point of view, Iran can do little to counter the attacks by Israel and the USA militarily. “Since the attacks last summer, Iran does not appear to have significantly strengthened its air defense,” said political scientist Maximilian Terhalle from Stanford University in California to the German Press Agency. “The Iranians are trying to attack wherever the Americans are stationed in the Middle East.” But these are more like pinpricks. “Iran does not have the clout to weaken the Americans.”
Conversely, the political scientist sees the possibility that the attacks could overthrow the Iranian government. “The chance of eliminating the essential elements of the elite is definitely there. But whether that will be enough to bring the revolution to the streets remains to be seen.”
What is exciting for Terhalle is the behavior of Russia and China in the conflict. “In the hour of decision, we see no support from Moscow and Beijing for the regime,” he emphasized. “Putin seems to care more about access to Trump than Iran.”
… on the regime’s chances of survival
The regime, which has already been massively weakened by domestic political protests, would now do everything it could to survive. “Because survival is the only way to ensure your ideological message,” said Schulze. This message is inextricably linked to the order of the Islamic Republic. Military operations would now be dedicated to this goal.
According to Schulze, whether this succeeds depends largely on whether and to what extent Israel and/or the USA are now prepared to bring ground troops into the country. “As soon as ground troops are in the country, the front in the country itself is opened.” According to the Islamic expert, that would mean “a completely different military and political situation”.
… about whether Trump’s promises are realistic
US President Trump this morning called on the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Iranian armed forces and police forces to lay down their weapons. In this case he promised complete immunity. Otherwise they would face certain death. Addressing the Iranian people, Trump said: “The hour of your freedom has come.” And: “When we’re done, take over your government.”
Video: Watson/Michael Shepherd
With these words, Trump wanted to make it clear that the military attacks against Iran serve to weaken the system so that the people “have the opportunity to take power in some way,” says Reinhard Schulze.
It is conceivable that Israeli or US facilities would be used in the event of a possible change of power. But no one knows whether there will be institutions in place that could fill a possible power vacuum. Schulze says: “Everyone in Iran is also asking themselves this question.”
(lak)