For months it looked as if the state elections in Baden-Württemberg were almost over. Now the Green Party’s leading candidate Cem Özdemir is almost on a par with the CDU in the last few meters.
February 26, 2026, 6:38 p.mFebruary 26, 2026, 6:38 p.m
A few days before the state elections, the Greens in Baden-Württemberg have almost caught up with the CDU, according to a survey. If there were a state election next Sunday, the Greens would get 27 percent of the vote and would therefore be only one percentage point behind the CDU, as a representative pre-election survey by the opinion research institute Infratest dimap on behalf of ARD showed.
Green Party candidate Cem Özdemir is catching up.Image: IMAGO / Joko
This means that the Greens and their top candidate Cem Özdemir have significantly increased in popularity with voters in the last few weeks – and the race for the post of Prime Minister is more open than ever in this election campaign. In the last survey by Infratest dimap on behalf of SWR and “Stuttgarter Zeitung” at the end of January, the Greens ended up with 23 percent, six percentage points behind the CDU, which came in at 29 percent. In October the gap was even nine percentage points.
According to the new figures, the AfD would now have 18 percent of the vote and would lose two percentage points compared to January. The Left also has to accept losses; at 5.5 percent it would have to worry about secure entry into the state parliament. Most recently, the party was at 7 percent.
The FDP would be in short supply in the state parliament, the Left would have to worry
The FDP would just be back in parliament with 6 percent. At the end of January, the Liberals were still at 5 percent. The SPD would get 7 percent and thus lose another percentage point.
For comparison: In the state elections in March 2021, the Greens achieved 32.6 percent, the CDU got 24.1 percent, the SPD got 11, the FDP got 10.5 and the AfD got 9.7 percent.
The survey was carried out between February 23rd and 25th – exactly during the period in which an old interview with CDU top candidate Manuel Hagel caused a stir in the election campaign.
In a survey published by the Insa Institute at the beginning of the week, the Greens had also caught up, although the CDU was still six percentage points ahead. However, this survey was carried out before the discussions about the hail video.
What role does an eight-year-old hail saying play?
In the scene, Hagel reports on a visit to a secondary school. Back then, 80 percent of the class was girls. “Well, there are worse dates than this for 29-year-old MPs,” says Hagel. He then goes into more detail about a student who asked the first question: “I’ll never forget the first question, her name was Eva, brown hair, fawn eyes.” Hagel admitted after publication: “The beginning of this interview in 2018 was crap. My wife gave me a heads up right then.”
CDU candidate Manuel Hagel is currently heavily criticized.Image: keystone
The state election on March 8th is about the distribution of power in the state parliament – and therefore also about the question of who will be the next Prime Minister of Baden-Württemberg. Incumbent Winfried Kretschmann (Greens) is no longer running after three terms in office. He currently governs in a green-black coalition.
Kretschmann’s successor is being sought
CDU state and parliamentary group leader Hagel and Green Party lead candidate Özdemir want to be his successor. AfD state leader Markus Frohnmaier is also running for his party as its candidate for prime minister, but has no realistic chance of winning the post because no other party wants to form a coalition with the AfD.
1,530 eligible voters in Baden-Württemberg were surveyed for the Infratest survey. The margin of error is between two and three percentage points. Election surveys are generally always subject to uncertainty. Among other things, weakening party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. (hkl/dpa)