Since the war in Ukraine started, Russia’s Vladimir Putin has made repeated nuclear threats, also updating the country’s doctrine to lower the threshold that would trigger a nuclear strike.
In the past few years, several Cold War-era treaties that limited nuclear arsenals have also expired. The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, known as INF, ended in 2019. The New Start agreement, which capped American and Russian strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550, expired earlier this month and is not expected to be renewed in the near future.
“We are clearly witnessing an erosion of everything that remains of the arms control framework,” the Elysée official stressed, adding that nuclear-armed countries now no longer shy away from military confrontations, pointing to India and Pakistan.
China is also pushing to increase its nuclear arsenal — the U.S. estimates that Beijing could have 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030 — and other countries, such as Iran, are looking to develop their own.
The French official addressed the open desire of some countries in Europe and Asia to have their own nuclear weapons.
“Another reason [for the risk of proliferation] is the feeling of insecurity in a number of countries, particularly when political shifts among various actors mean that those who believed they could rely on guarantees are no longer assured of them,” they said, in a thinly veiled reference to Washington’s recent geopolitical actions under President Donald Trump.
While no countries were named, there are talks ongoing in South Korea and Japan about whether they should develop homegrown nuclear deterrents. Earlier this month, Polish President Karol Nawrocki said his country should start developing nuclear defenses, given the threat from Moscow.
However, the Non-Proliferation Treaty, known as NPT, still remains one of the cornerstones of arms control in the world, the official said: “NPT is not dead.”