interview
At the beginning of the fifth year of the war, Eastern Europe expert Ulrich Schmid from the University of St. Gallen names the Kremlin’s sore points.
Feb 24, 2026, 1:32 p.mFeb 24, 2026, 2:13 p.m
The Russian war against Ukraine is entering its fifth year. Who currently has the advantage, the Russians or the Ukrainians?
Ulrich Schmid: At the moment it looks like the Ukrainians have a slight advantage again. This has to do with Elon Musk excluding the Russians from his Starlink satellite system. This was a direct request from the new, very young Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhaylo Fedorov, who comes from the tech industry and obviously has a good connection with Elon Musk.
Goes into the fifth year of the war with great worries: Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin will run out of money and soldiers in the long term.Image: keystone
The Ukrainians were therefore able to reconquer a larger area of land. How important was this success?
It’s not a game changer, but it is a significant brake on the Russians. The Ukrainians have recaptured areas measuring around 200 square kilometers. That’s not a huge amount, but it does swing the pendulum slightly in Ukraine’s favor.
How stable is Russia’s economy after 4 years of war?
The central bank’s official figures look relatively good. Inflation should therefore be six percent. In reality, of course, things look different. Economic experts suspect that the actual inflation in Russia is at least twice as high – and has now also reached consumers.
Russia expert Ulrich Schmid from the HSG: As long as Putin sits in the Kremlin, the signs point to war.Image: Raphael Rohner
How does this affect?
Food prices are rising sharply. Mortgages in Russia have also become extremely expensive. Companies are having increasing difficulty obtaining loans. Overall, the Russian economy is facing major problems.
How long will the Russians keep doing this?
At both ends of Russian society, there are about 15 percent who vehemently support the war or are in favor of ending military action. In between there is a large gray mass that is easily influenced. Russian society is very atomized, and all political opposition structures have been thoroughly destroyed. Resistance is not expected from Russian society in the foreseeable future.
Is Russia’s army stronger or weaker today than it was when it attacked Ukraine four years ago?
The nature of the war has, of course, changed. At the beginning, Putin sent airborne troops and light police units to Ukraine because he wrongly assumed that the Russians would be greeted as a liberation army. Putin now has a similar problem to Ukraine: He cannot recruit enough people for this military campaign, which is still not an official war. To date, Russia has not declared war on Ukraine. It is difficult for Putin to find soldiers to send to the meat grinder in Ukraine. The Ukrainians are experiencing a similar situation. When he took office, the new defense minister criticized the fact that there were two million men in the country who were avoiding military service. There would also be 200,000 deserters. Meanwhile, Russia is intensifying its war crimes attack tactics on Ukrainian energy facilities.
To person
Ulrich Schmid is Professor of Eastern European Studies at the University of St. Gallen (HSG). He researches politics and media in Russia as well as nationalism in Eastern Europe and is one of the most renowned Russia experts in Switzerland. (fho)
How long can Putin continue to finance this war and sustain it militarily?
Unfortunately, Putin still has a lot of money in his coffers. The central bank reserves are around $800 billion – about half of which he cannot access due to blockades abroad. At the same time, the price of gold has risen sharply and the Russian central bank holds significant gold holdings. So on paper, Putin still has a war chest.
Does that mean he can just move on?
Not without further ado. This money cannot be mobilized at will. The war is estimated to cost Russia around $120 billion a year. This is enormous – and the budget situation will become increasingly tight in the future. Europe’s purchases of Russian liquefied natural gas have continued so far, but are scheduled to end in early 2027. In the medium and long term, things are looking rather bad for Putin – that’s the good news for Ukraine. The bad news: Putin will probably still have enough resources to continue the war for about one to one and a half years. At the same time, Russian regions are coming under increasing pressure. Because of the high key interest rate, they can hardly refinance themselves.
Russia is now back at the negotiating table, most recently in Geneva. What is Putin’s goal?
Everyone has now realized that Putin is only simulating his willingness to negotiate – except possibly Donald Trump. This became apparent by April 2025 at the latest. At that time, the Americans presented an extremely far-reaching offer that did not correspond to Putin’s military capabilities at the time. The USA would have been prepared to recognize Crimea as Russian, to commit Ukraine not to join NATO and to accept Russia’s de facto control over the occupied territories in eastern Ukraine. There was even the prospect of an expiry of sanctions. Putin rejected that.
What does that say about his intentions?
It shows that Putin didn’t want a deal even when it would have been extremely cheap. And then came the catastrophically prepared Alaska summit. Putin got excellent pictures. The red carpet was literally rolled out for him. Trump got nothing. What was fatal was that Putin dripped “sweet poison” into Trump’s ear and persuaded him not to seek a ceasefire, but rather a “permanent peace.” If you are truly interested in peace, there is no understandable reason not to push for a ceasefire first.
Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump at the Alaska summit in August 2025.Image: keystone
What would have to happen for Russia to actually agree to peace?
Two factors. First: Putin doesn’t want peace. Second: Trump is clearly unable or unwilling to actually tighten the thumbscrews. The only thing currently preventing him from establishing a Russian-American dictated peace is domestic political pressure. A large portion of his voters are demanding a tougher course against Russia – and Trump wants to win the midterms (congressional elections in fall 2026, editor’s note).
So are the current negotiations a waste of time?
The round in Geneva was a soap bubble. This was evident from the fact that the Russian delegation was led by the washed-up ex-culture minister Medinski. Instead of substantive discussions, there were historical-philosophical lectures about why Ukraine supposedly belongs to Russia. Not even the two days of negotiations were fully utilized – the delegations left empty-handed.
Vladimir Medinsky.Image: keystone
From the Ukrainian perspective, what is currently realistic in such discussions?
In the short term, the aim is to achieve a ceasefire and freeze the conflict. In the long term, it is about “hibernating” Putin’s personality. At the same time, Russia’s financial resources must be starved. The decisive factor is not gas, but oil. The Russian state budget is based primarily on oil revenues. The relatively low oil price is therefore a good thing. Russia is ultimately a petrostate – as the late US Senator John McCain said: “a gas station masquerading as a state.”
Is there anything that gives you hope about the coming war year?
Yes. Russia’s economic situation will continue to deteriorate. The war consumes enormous sums of money while revenues come under pressure. This is unsustainable in the long term. Secondly, there are signs of a new Ukrainian policy towards Belarus. So far, Kiev has avoided openly cooperating with the Belarusian opposition for fear that Lukashenko might side with Putin more militarily. This taboo is beginning to crumble. A destabilization of Belarus would be a serious blow to Moscow.
Another potential weak point is Chechnya. The ruler there, Ramzan Kadyrov, is seriously ill and the question of his successor is unclear. This is a horror vision for Putin. His biggest fear is that the Russian Federation will collapse like the Soviet Union once did – and the first domino would be Chechnya. Added to this are the growing capabilities of the Ukrainian secret service. In recent months there have been several successful assassination attempts on Russian military personnel and acts of sabotage in the Russian hinterland. Ukraine is increasingly bringing the war into Russia, especially through attacks on refineries and the oil industry. That’s where the Kremlin is hurting the most.
Chechnya’s President Ramzan Kadyrov.Image: imago images
Secret services have recently increasingly warned of a possible Russian attack on NATO states in the not too distant future. How realistic is this danger?
I think this narrative is problematic. It plays into the hands of the Kremlin. Because every euro that flows into national defense budgets is a euro that may not go to supporting Ukraine. Russia currently has neither the financial nor military resources to launch a major attack on Western Europe. The real danger lies below the war threshold: destabilization, influence peddling, vote buying, political manipulation, for example in Georgia or Moldova.
The war won’t end even in the fifth year?
No. As long as Putin is in power, there are no realistic signs of an imminent end. (aargauerzeitung.ch)