The EU, its Member States and the private sector should invest about €70 billion per year until 2050 in climate adaptation, to reduce exposure to increasing climate hazards and improve resilience, according to a new study commissioned by the Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA) and funded under Horizon Europe.
Assessment of EU and Member States adaptation investment needs
Investing in our future
Investing in adaptation and resilience has become more urgent than ever as the trend towards warmer global temperatures continues and the socio-economic costs of climate-related events keep rising.
The study, which focuses on adaptation investment needs and abstracts from the costs of climate-related events, is the first of its kind and fills an important knowledge gap. It uses a common methodology to estimate investment needs in adaptation for the EU and all Member States individually, looking into the risk clusters identified in the 2024 European Climate Risk AssessmentEuropean Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) and into individual adaptation measures at the EU and Member State level. It builds on the best-available sources of information and a wide range of academic research.
The study finds that of the annual €70 billion that need to be invested in adaptation, about €30 billion are needed for infrastructure, €21 billion for ecosystems and €12 billion for food security.
France, Italy, Germany and Spain have the largest adaptation investment needs, in part due to their geographic and economic size. The study also finds that the scale and types of investments needed vary significantly across Member States, depending on individual country characteristics.
The findings are based on a four-step methodology focused on (1) identifying climate risks, building on the EUCRA and National Adaptation Plans and Strategies; (2) identifying adaptation measures and mapping them to EUCRA risks; (3) identifying cost data for a shortlist of adaptation measures; and (4) scaling costs data to Member State level and characteristics. Each step is fully documented in detailed methodology reports, published alongside the study, to ensure transparency and replicability.
Key messages and recommendations
The study stresses that the current supply of adaptation finance is insufficient and that investing in adaptation delivers co-benefits, including for climate mitigation.
While the study represents a major step forward in understanding the scale and nature of adaptation investment needs, it emphasises that better data on adaptation costs is necessary.
Adaptation investment needs and climate risks should also be better integrated in national budgetary planning, given the primary role that the public sector will play in implementing adaptation measures.
Finally, the study stresses that further work is required to assess needs under a range of climate scenarios, desired resilience targets and residual risks, and to evaluate cost-benefit ratios for adaptation measures.
This study is published as the Commission prepares a new integrated framework for European climate resilience and risk management to help Member States prevent and get ready for the growing impacts of climate change.