China’s President Xi Jinping.Image: keystone
China’s economy grew more slowly at the end of last year. As the statistics office in Beijing announced, the gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2025 still increased by 4.5 percent year-on-year.
Jan 19, 2026, 05:4301/19/2026, 06:06
The world’s second-largest economy thus recorded its weakest quarterly growth since the end of the Corona lockdown three years ago. In the previous three quarters, the economy grew by 5.4 percent, 5.2 percent and 4.8 percent.
Statisticians reported growth of 5.0 percent for the year as a whole. This means that the government’s target of “around five percent” was achieved. The economy was supported by foreign trade. Despite ongoing tensions with the USA and new trade policy uncertainties, Chinese companies benefited from strong exports to other regions.
For comparison: The economy in the USA is expected to have grown by around 2.5 percent in 2025, while the EU is estimated to have grown by around 1 to 1.5 percent. There are no definitive numbers yet. The figures published by China should be viewed with caution. There are indications that the country is embellishing its own figures, especially when it comes to GDP growth.
Growth is likely to weaken further
Economists see China’s latest figures as signs of unbalanced development. While the export boom is supporting the economy, weak domestic demand, a tight labor market and falling real estate prices are weighing on consumers’ purchasing mood. In addition, many local governments have high debts, which limit the scope for large economic stimulus programs.
This pattern is largely expected to continue this year. International organizations remain cautious. The World Bank expects growth of around 4.4 percent for 2026, the International Monetary Fund assumes around 4.5 percent. The US investment bank Goldman Sachs is somewhat more optimistic and expects an increase of 4.8 percent. (sda/dpa/con)