MPs returned from the holiday break with little more appetite to strike a deal, and the prospects of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s minority government persuading a majority to back a budget — one that includes politically sensitive measures to rein in France’s chronic deficit — have all but evaporated.
In a statement sent to reporters, Lecornu’s office said “continued sabotage” by France’s two largest opposition forces — the hard-left France Unbowed and the far-right National Rally — had made it impossible to pass a budget, even though these two parties don’t hold a majority of seats in parliament, and even though most lawmakers — spanning from the center-left Socialist Party to the conservative Les Républicains — had agreed to enter budget talks over the past few months, albeit failed to reach a compromise.
The French constitution gives Lecornu two options.
Because parliament failed to pass a budget by the constitutional deadline, the government is allowed to legislate by executive action. The upside: A budget would be adopted, and lawmakers would have no immediate recourse. The downside: No budget has ever been passed this way, and doing so could be perceived as an assault on parliamentary democracy — sharply increasing the likelihood that a no-confidence motion against the government would succeed.
The second option would be to invoke the constitution’s controversial article 49.3. The provision allows the government to enact legislation without a vote, while giving opposition parties the right to respond with a no-confidence motion that, if passed, would block the bill and topple the government.
That route carries the risk of prolonging the budget crisis, but could be seen as less undemocratic by some opposition parties. Crucially, the center-left Socialists could be persuaded not to support any ensuing no-confidence motion if a budget passed via Article 49.3 incorporates some of their policy priorities.