People are feeling the effects of climate change primarily through more frequent extreme weather. Pictured: California floods in early 2026.Image: keystone
The past year 2025 was the third warmest since records began.
January 14, 2026, 05:59January 14, 2026, 05:59
For the first time, according to EU calculations, an average of more than 1.5 degrees was above pre-industrial levels for three years. There is a risk that the Paris climate target will be exceeded in the not too distant future.
“2025 was only slightly cooler than 2023, and 2024 remains the warmest year on record,” said Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the EU Copernicus program, in a briefing for the publication of the “Global Climate Highlights”.
2025 was therefore 0.01 degrees warmer than 2023 and 0.13 degrees cooler than 2024. The global average temperature was 14.97 degrees. The past eleven years have been the eleven warmest ever. “2025 was another extraordinary year for the planet,” Burgess said.
First three-year period above 1.5 degrees
The data published by the climate change service Copernicus in cooperation with other European and US organizations shows how the climate crisis is getting worse: the global temperatures from 2023 to 2025 were more than 1.5 degrees higher on a three-year average than in the pre-industrial era. “This is the first time that a three-year period has exceeded this limit,” the report says.
The authors point out that there may be differences in the calculations of other organizations because the exact same data sets are not used. The World Weather Organization also wanted to publish data on global temperatures in 2025 on Wednesday.
The Paris climate target, with which the global community wants to avert the most devastating consequences of the climate crisis, is officially not yet considered to have been missed despite being exceeded for several years, as the 1.5 degree limit must be exceeded in the longer term. However, the majority of experts assume that it cannot be maintained – and that it will be tight even for 2 degrees.
If global warming continues at the current pace, the 1.5 degree limit will be considered exceeded towards the end of the decade – about ten years earlier than long assumed, Copernicus said. “Emissions have not fallen as quickly as expected,” explained Burgess.
Global warming does not develop linearly
The Copernicus experts emphasized that the fact that 2025 was not hotter than 2024 and that there are fluctuations does not contradict the fact that the earth will continue to warm in the long term. This would apply even if climate-damaging greenhouse gases were no longer emitted from tomorrow, as they remain in the atmosphere for a long time. “With CO2 we are talking about centuries,” emphasized Laurence Rouil from the Copernicus Atmosphere Service.
The fact that there were below-average temperatures in some places or that it is currently very cold in many regions is part of the normal variability of the weather. «A cold region does not mean that climate change is not real. The global context counts,” says Burgess. Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo added: “If you zoom out and look at the big picture, the picture is very clear.”
Why has it been so warm in the past three years?
The unusually high average temperature is due to the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere – due to further emissions and less absorption of CO2 by natural sinks, such as forests. In addition, the temperatures on the surface of the oceans were exceptionally high, which was partly due to the so-called El Niño phenomenon.
An El Niño phase is associated with higher global sea surface temperatures. The El Niño phenomenon, which occurs every few years, is triggered by warmer water temperatures in the tropical Pacific, which influences weather conditions worldwide through changes in air and ocean currents. The phenomenon weakened over the course of the year.
What does the climate crisis mean in everyday life?
People feel climate change not primarily through gradual changes, but through extreme weather events, Burgess explained. In 2025, half of the world’s land area experienced more days of severe heat stress than average. The report authors include days that feel like 32 degrees or more. The World Health Organization (WHO) ranks heat stress as the leading cause of deaths related to weather events. In addition, heat in dry and windy areas often contributed to the spread of forest fires. In Europe, emissions from wildfires will peak in 2025, according to the Copernicus report.
“The world is rapidly approaching the long-term temperature limit set by the Paris Agreement,” warned Buontempo. «We will inevitably exceed them. Now we must decide how best to deal with this inevitable exceedance and its consequences for society and ecosystems.” (sda/dpa)