analysis
Friedrich Merz as Chancellor has never been closer to the abyss than he is these days. The only thing that is certain is that German politics is facing an autumn after which little will be the same as before.
July 30, 2026, 01:26July 30, 2026, 01:26
Hansjörg Friedrich Müller, Berlin / ch media
One of his last trips as chancellor? Friedrich Merz, here on Wednesday at a press conference with Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin in Dublin.Image: Peter Morrison/Keystone
It may seem strange to point this out these days, but historically the German Christian Democrats are one of the most successful parties in the world: in 77 years of the Federal Republic, they have provided the chancellor for 53 years. The success of the country was usually also that of the party. He was also the one who held the CDU together: the hope of a career disciplined the party, while the less pragmatic SPD was usually further away from power and also argued more.
But what holds the CDU together when voters ensure that it has fewer and fewer positions to distribute? From the point of view of many party members, there will no longer be any reason to keep quiet and follow the leadership. This creates a vicious circle, because unrest causes middle-class voters to turn away even further.
The Chancellor lacks professionalism and prudence
Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor and CDU leader, is currently in such a downward spiral. Last but not least, he himself contributed to this, for example by unnecessarily throwing his transport minister out of the cabinet and leaving it unclear why a change at the top of the department should bring an improvement. The fact that the replacement Merz had planned unexpectedly canceled is not the Chancellor’s fault, but it does not speak for his professionalism and prudence.
Patrick Schnieder, who was hardly known to a wider audience until recently, has suddenly become a symbol of dissatisfaction with Merz.Image: Michael Ukas/DPA
Since his dismissal, Patrick Schnieder, the deposed transport minister, has become something of a martyr for many CDU members. Christian Democrats from his home state of Rhineland-Palatinate canceled a meeting with Merz; Schnieder’s brother, who governs the country as Prime Minister, expressed his lack of understanding of the Chancellor so sharply that one could for a moment think that his regional association would soon stop making payments to the CDU headquarters in Berlin.
The fact that Merz is in more trouble than ever before in his chancellorship can also be seen in the fact that CDU people suddenly dare to object, whose names even many political journalists have never heard before: You cannot run a party like a company, said Bremen CDU leader Heiko Strohmann to the chancellor in a meeting. Merz’s authority is obviously on the wane.
An East German revolt threatens the CDU headquarters in Berlin
Of course the Chancellor won’t fall in the next few days, after all it’s September State elections in Saxony-AnhaltBerlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Then, however, the big argument could break out in the party: The fact that the AfD is clearly set to become the strongest force in the two eastern German states will not only increase the defeatism of the Christian Democrats, but will also make the debate about how the CDU should deal with the AfD become the overriding question.
But this question is the elephant in the room: the CDU doesn’t want to have anything to do with the right – understandably, they do unlike similar parties in France or Italy no signs of moderation.
This throws the CDU into a dilemma from which there is currently no obvious way out: In order to organize majorities beyond the AfD, it has to join forces with the SPD or the Greens, so that major reforms like the country needs become impossible – and conservative voters even more turn away from the CDU and towards the AfD. Merz will not get out of this trap by replacing ministers.
The “firewall” will hardly survive Merz
The “firewall” that the Christian Democrats have built against the AfD will probably fall in the foreseeable future: once the AfD achieves sustained results of around 40 percent in the eastern German states, it will hardly be possible to keep them out. If the Berlin CDU headquarters insists on this, it will have to prepare for a revolt by its East German state associations.
Will Merz still be able to hold on? It will probably be difficult. He differentiates himself so sharply from the AfD that he can hardly move away from this position without it to squander the last bit of credibility. On the other hand, the question arises as to who can still hold the CDU together. Even a split into an East and a West German party appears possible. The only thing that is certain is that German politics is facing an autumn after which little will be the same as before. (schweiztoday.ch)