No one is yet saying out loud that Merz should go. But if his party performs poorly in three state elections in September, the crisis will likely become much harder to contain.
The drama has so far unfolded in two acts. The first began on July 14, when BILD — which, like POLITICO, is owned by Axel Springer — reported that Jens Spahn, the conservatives’ parliamentary group leader, and his husband had become parents through a surrogate mother in the United States.
“This feeling can hardly be put into words,” the paper quoted him as saying. The complication was plain enough: Surrogacy is banned in Germany, and the CDU has long opposed it, as had Spahn.
Merz’s standing has deteriorated since he took office in May 2025, with his support among voters falling as the far-right Alternative for Germany has surged to the top of the polls. The surrogacy controversy intensified the unease within the CDU.
The second act of the crisis was meant, in Merz’s telling, to be a liberation and a fresh start. Spahn, a long-standing rival whom Merz had always eyed warily, was made to resign, and a broader shake-up was supposed to quickly follow — only for things to fly off the rails.
On Thursday, Transport Minister Patrick Schnieder learned that he was to be dismissed and immediately told his staff by text message. But the man Merz had lined up to replace him was not yet convinced to take the job and withdrew.