Michel Barnier may be Ireland’s favourite Frenchman.
As the European Union’s chief negotiator during Brexit, he continually resisted British attempts to isolate Ireland and its concerns about the Border and threw the full weight of the EU and all its members behind the Irish government’s position.
Patient, resolute, strategic and meticulously prepared, Barnier became a bête noire for British Brexiteers and an indispensable ally of Dublin.
He emerged with a deal that satisfied all of Ireland’s red lines, protected the EU’s single market and split British Brexiteers, who burned through five prime ministers, split the Conservative Party and left its wilder reaches still claiming that they never got the Brexit they voted for in June 2016.
This week, he was back in Dublin for a series of political meetings with Taoiseach Micheál Martin, Minister for Foreign Affairs Helen McEntee and other senior figures. After a brief stint as French prime minister (from September to December 2024), he is now a member of the French parliament.
On Tuesday, he was a guest at the Bastille Day reception hosted by Céline Place, the French ambassador, where he was greeted warmly by all comers and hailed by Martin in his speech as a great friend of Ireland. During Barnier’s period as Brexit negotiator, Martin recalled, approval for the EU reached 93 per cent in Ireland. It is still above 80 per cent. That’s not all down to Ireland’s favourite Frenchman. But some of it is.
Sitting in the drawingroom of the ambassador’s residence on Ailesbury Road in Dublin 4 (the room is the size of a football pitch) before the reception, he recalls the Brexit negotiations a decade since the British referendum. Barnier plays down the success of the negotiations from the point of view of Ireland and the EU.
The EU and Ireland are generally held as having emerged as well as they could, while the damage to Britain politically and economically continues to manifest itself; next week, the UK gets its seventh prime minister since the 2016 referendum. Barnier insists there was and is “nothing to celebrate”.
“The UK is alone, and in the world it is better not to be alone. And we are weaker because we have lost a very important member state, with a very dynamic trade policy, a seat at the United Nations [Security] Council, so everybody is weaker,” he says.
He was in the UK recently for a series of events to mark the 10th anniversary of Brexit, where he met privately with former British Conservative prime minister Theresa May, for whom he retains deep respect.
“There is nothing to celebrate, nothing – except friendship. They did not imagine all the consequences,” he says, with some understatement, adding later: “They were not correctly prepared.”
Barnier’s approach was rooted in careful preparation and strategy but also in the EU’s core value of solidarity between members. He insisted that every problem created for an individual member state by Brexit – and clearly Ireland was where most problems were located – was a problem for all member states.
“Solidarity,” he says firmly.
Because the British idea was that they would split off member states by dealing with them individually?
“Every day they try to split off, divide us … My strategy was to explain that if there was a problem for Ireland – and obviously there was a huge problem with Northern Ireland and peace – it was to become the problem of the 26 others.”
Today, still an active politician at 75, Barnier says he is greatly concerned about next year’s presidential election in France and the prospect of a victory for Marine Le Pen, the candidate of the far-right National Rally party.
“The French situation is very serious … because of the crystallisation of the French debate between the far right and the far left – and the weaknesses of all the others – we face the risk to have the second round of the elections between the far right and the far left.
“Both of them are anti-European, Mr [Jean-Luc] Mélenchon and Mrs Le Pen. It is a serious risk not only for France, but for Europe. So what happens in France is also important for Europe.”
The only way to avoid this “duel”, he says, “is to have a single candidate for the centre right”.
What would a Le Pen presidency mean? Would she be just a version of the Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni, who came to power amid warnings of her far-right politics, but has been a pretty conventional centre-right leader, at least when it comes to the EU?
“Nobody can seriously say that Mrs Le Pen will act like Meloni. Because there are two huge differences – Mrs Meloni has always been pro-Atlanticist and pro-business. Mrs Le Pen is pro-Russian and anti-business.”
He recalls that on the night of the Brexit referendum 10 years ago, Le Pen congratulated the UK for “having the courage to free themselves of the European servitude”.
“I think it is still her feeling, but she has been clever to moderate,” he says.
Still, he notes: “She said that one of her first decisions would be to cut by half the French contribution to the European budget.” That would mean the end of the EU, he says. If that happens, “it’s over”.
So the election, he says, represents a “moment of truth” for France.
Not least because France faces a reckoning with its budget deficit, which cannot continue at its present rate, he says. His own attempts to reduce the deficit eventually led to his removal as prime minister, when parliament voted no confidence in him. But this reality will face whoever wins the presidential election.
“The new French president will have to be courageous, courageous,” Barnier says.
Is the transatlantic alliance in military terms effectively at an end?
“Yes. But don’t confuse the American people with Trump … But whatever Mr Trump will do or say, we must act by ourselves to reduce our dependencies and to build, starting from what we have already built which is the single market, our main asset, starting very well to build global power,” he says.
“I don’t say that we have to build European power against the Americans or without taking into account the transatlantic relations, but in any case we have to build this capacity by ourselves.”
It is inevitable, he says, that the future of the EU will be more security focused. Some of those changes have already taken place.
“The EU that the Brits left 10 years ago is not the same today … We are more focused on our security and the challenges of our defence,” he says.
Does Ireland need to play more of a role in EU security?
“I was interested at my working lunch in the Dáil, there were around the table members of the parliament from all the parties,” he says.
“I understood a kind of consensus that Ireland will have to increase its national expenses on security. It seemed to me there is a consensus.
“We have to respect the debate in every country – at what level, what kind of dimension the Irish Government will co-operate with the others as far as defence is concerned.”
Isn’t there a concern in the EU – it is unmistakable in some circles in Brussels anyway – that the solidarity that was shown to Ireland during Brexit should now be reciprocated as the EU, especially in the east, faces security threats from Russia?
“To be frank, it was not and it is still not the spirit of our relations, to have this kind of bargaining,” he says. “Ever.”