Emmanuel Macron inspects the military on the Champs-Élysées on Tuesday.Image: keystone
analysis
Emmanuel Macron’s presidency is inevitably coming to an end. The extremists seem to have the advantage in the fight for his successor, but that doesn’t mean much.
July 14, 2026, 5:06 p.mJuly 14, 2026, 5:06 p.m
France celebrates its national holiday on July 14th with pomp and pathos. This year, however, there is a shadow over the festivities. It has been exactly ten years since an IS supporter drove a truck through the celebrating crowd in Nice. 86 people died, it was one of the worst terrorist attacks in European history.
“Bastille Day” 2026 is also the last in Emmanuel Macron’s presidency. To mark the occasion, he serves again with the large ladle. He has 30 other heads of state and government from the “Coalition of the Willing” to support Ukraine invited to Paris. They also took part in the traditional military parade on Tuesday.
In the small town of La Flèche, Marine Le Pen opened her election campaign last week together with Jordan Bardella (r.).Image: keystone
In terms of foreign policy, Macron has achieved a lot, for example as a counterpoint to Donald Trump. His compatriots recognize that. But they judge its internal balance sheet to be mixed to the point of desolate, with high national debt and growing inequality. Nine months before the next election, his presidency has an air of “fin de siècle” about it.
Le Pen and Mélenchon are rushing forward
Actually, the time after Macron has already begun, as the fight for his successor has been in full swing since last week at the latest. The reason was Marine Le Pen’s announcement after the surprisingly lenient verdict of an appeals court for embezzlement definitely want to run for presidentif necessary with an ankle bracelet.
It has long been known that 74-year-old Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the head of the radical left-wing party La France Insoumise (LFI), was also involved. want to know again. In the moderate spectrum on the left and right, however, the field is still fairly unsorted. At the moment the extremists appear to have the advantage. But a lot is possible between now and the election next April.
Ticket with Bardella
In a current survey by the Ifop Institute on behalf of the television station LCI and the newspaper “Le Figaro”, Marine Le Pen is in the lead Clearly in the lead with 36 percent. The 56-year-old wants to make her “foster son” Jordan Bardella head of government, as she emphasized last week. The problem is that Bardella has performed better in the polls for a long time.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon is competing for the fourth time.Image: keystone
The head of the right-wing populist Rassemblement National (RN) wants to benefit from this through a joint ticket, but it is doubtful whether this calculation works. And Le Pen has other mortgages. If her final appeal before the Court of Cassation fails, she will remain a convicted criminal. And her name scares many French people away.
An anti-Semitic extremist
A victory in the runoff election in May 2027 would be anything but certain. Many people therefore consider Bardella to be the better candidate, but questions arise about him too. Would the French really elect a 30-year-old college dropout with no professional experience as head of state? His too Blingbling liaison with an Italian princess causes frowns.
The reservations about Jean-Luc Mélenchon are even greater. The left winger is an excellent campaigner and a gifted speaker. It is particularly popular with young people and in the banlieue. In the aforementioned survey he gets 15 percent, more than ever before, but for the vast majority of French people he is an anti-Semitic extremist.
Macron’s former prime minister in second place
A strong candidacy from the moderate camp would be all the more important. At least on the right, one person stands out: Édouard Philippe, mayor of Le Havre and the first head of government after Macron’s election victory in 2017. In the Ifop survey he is in second place with 19 percent. Philippe is meticulously pushing forward his election campaign.
Édouard Philippe on July 5th at his first major campaign rally in Paris.Image: www.imago-images.de
On the Sunday before last he stopped his largest rally to date in an arena in the north of Paris. His strategy is obvious: He wants to establish himself as the top dog in the center-right camp and thwart potential rivals. Ex-Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and Bruno Retailleau from the conservative Républicains have already announced their candidacy.
Hollande joins the conversation
Other names are likely to follow, such as the current head of government Sébastien Lecornu or Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin. French political observers assume that Édouard Philippe will prevail. According to the Ifop poll, he would lose in a runoff against Marine Le Pen, but that doesn’t mean much today.
Things look even more confusing for the moderate parties in the left-green spectrum. Macron’s socialist predecessor François Hollande is toying with running for office againbut hardly anyone takes it seriously. At the end of his presidency, he was so unpopular that he decided not to run for a second term.
Runoff election of extremes?
Raphaël Glucksmann, founder of the Place Publique party, which is allied with the Socialists, is considered a potential candidate. He achieved a strong result in the European elections two years ago. He’s still shy. He will “Before the end of the summer” he would announce whether he wanted to runsaid Glucksmann to the television station BFMTV.
Raphaël Glucksmann could run for the moderate left, but is still keeping a low profile.Image: keystone
After the summer break, the fight for Macron’s successor should really begin. With a looming tussle left and right of center, the worst case scenario could occur: a runoff election between the extreme right and left. According to Ifop, Marine Le Pen would clearly win this against Jean-Luc Mélenchon with 70 to 30 percent.
A “candidacy of reason”
It would be the total failure of Emmanuel Macron’s ambition to keep the two poles out of power once and for all. But it doesn’t have to come to that. Some analysts believe that given the challenges facing France, a “candidacy of reason” will ultimately prevail again.
“In my opinion, the choice will be between Édouard Philippe and Marine Le Pen,” said political scientist Luc Rouban from the elite Sciences Po university in an interview with “NZZ am Sonntag”. With the better ending for Macron’s ex-prime minister. But who knows today what will happen in the next nine months?