The defense alliance wants to show strength at the meeting in Turkey. But Russia, Ukraine aid and, above all, the US President are putting the alliance under massive pressure.
07/07/2026, 00:0807/07/2026, 00:08
Remo Hess, Ankara, Maria Steinmayr / ch media
Donald Trump (left) greets Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Egypt last October.Image: Evan Vucci / AP
A big question hangs over the NATO summit in Ankara: How predictable is the USA under Donald Trump? His threats and swipes turn the meeting into a stress test. NATO wants to demonstrate unity – and satisfy Trump.
Five questions and answers.
What does Trump want?
The US President is not coming to Ankara to reassure NATO, but to set his conditions. For him, the alliance is only valuable if Europe pays more and the USA is relieved. Like at the last summit in The Hague, where the Europeans pledged defense spending of five percent of economic output. “Daddy Trump,” as he was called by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, was able to be celebrated as the big winner.
In the run-up to this year’s summit, the USA announced that it would provide fewer military capabilities for NATO in the future. For example, they want to withdraw nuclear submarines with Tomahawk cruise missiles from the NATO operating area. There is also talk of recalling an aircraft carrier group and canceling a group of long-range bombers. But Europe does not have the means to replace these skills.
How do the Europeans want to satisfy Trump?
NATO’s big summit goal is to show Trump that last year’s billion-dollar commitments are now being implemented. To put it another way: The aim is to show how NATO is bringing its newfound strength onto the streets. To this end, Trump is to be presented with new arms contracts worth tens of billions. The NATO organizers call the production the “big reveal,” which is reminiscent of the dramaturgy of a TV show.
Secondly, it’s about Ukraine. A new promise of billions is planned: 70 billion euros per year over two years, a total of 140 billion euros. The Europeans want to show that they support Kiev in the long term, even if the USA no longer pays under Trump.
However, the calculations are very creative. 60 billion euros come from an EU loan. Of the remaining 80 billion, half is money that has already been announced. So only 40 billion are new for 2027.
What could possibly go wrong?
A lot. NATO diplomats admit behind the scenes that it’s all about keeping Donald Trump happy. This one is known for his short attention span. The summit, originally scheduled to last two days, was cut down to a joint dinner on Tuesday evening and a three-hour working session on Wednesday morning.
The worst possible case scenario would be for Trump to lose himself in another tirade of abuse against individual members. He has already done that against Spain, which is at the bottom of NATO with its defense spending. Last week, Trump’s ban fell on Germany, whose arms efforts he called “ridiculous.” He did not say how he came to this conclusion. In 2025, Germany was in second place on the NATO spending list with over 100 billion euros – just after the USA.
What is Trump’s argument with Meloni?
Trump originally had a close relationship with Italy’s right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. But since the G7 summit in Evian, France, where Trump made fun of Meloni, things have been creaking. Before the Ankara summit, Trump is dishing it out again. On his network “Truth Social” he posted a photo in which Meloni is looking intently at him. Next to it is the sentence “Restraining order needed” – meaning: “An interim injunction is necessary here.”
That seems personal, but it shows Trump’s pattern: He turns alliance politics into a power game. Even government leaders who are well-disposed toward him must expect public humiliation.
The reason is that Italy had barred the US from using its military base in Sicily for the war against Iran. Trump hasn’t forgotten that. Other allies could also come under fire again at the summit because of their critical stance on the Iran war.
Meloni and Trump.Image: keystone
What role does host Erdogan play?
Shortly before the summit, hundreds of opposition members were arrested in raids in Turkey. Nationally known stand-up comedian Deniz Göktas was also arrested on Thursday. Among other things, he is accused of “insulting the president” as part of his new stage program.
For Erdogan, the summit is a success right from the start: he can present himself as the host of an alliance that cannot function without him. In fact, Turkey is more popular than it has been for a long time because of its strong army and its immense geopolitical importance between Europe, Russia, the Middle East and the Black Sea.
And as is well known, Erdogan gets along very well with Donald Trump. Two weeks ago, the US President even said that he would only travel to the summit because his “friend” Erdogan personally asked him to do so.
Erdogan now wants to reap concrete benefits from this: He is hoping for the green light from Washington to purchase the F-35 fighter jet. From Europe he wants access for the Turkish arms industry to the EU defense programs.
For Erdogan, the summit is the stage for a self-confident Türkiye. He says: “Europe needs Turkey more than Turkey needs Europe,” and he is probably not wrong. (schweiztoday.ch)