Ulrich Siegmund (AfD): The right-wing populist faction leader could become Germany’s first AfD Prime Minister.Image: www.imago-images.de
Pollster Manfred Güllner warns of an absolute majority for the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt. He holds the democratic parties responsible.
June 28, 2026, 4:44 p.mJune 28, 2026, 4:44 p.m
Tobias Schibilla / t-online
The head of the Forsa opinion research institute, Manfred Güllner, does not want to rule out an absolute majority for the AfD in the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6th. “That is entirely possible,” the pollster told the “Tagesspiegel”. However, such an election result is not inevitable.
According to Güllner’s assessment, the result depends crucially on whether the parties in the political center bring their potential voters to the polls. “The center parties in Saxony-Anhalt must motivate these people to vote in order to prevent the AfD from taking hold,” he said. An absolute majority cannot be attributed solely to the strength of the AfD. “Such an AfD victory would only be possible through the weakness of the CDU and SPD.”
Forsa boss: SPD and CDU are not exploiting voter potential
To justify this, Güllner referred to the AfD’s voter potential. According to him, 24 percent of those eligible to vote in the West could imagine voting for the party, while in the East it was 41 percent. At the same time, this also means that almost 60 percent of East Germans could not imagine voting for the AfD.
According to Güllner, around 20 percent of eligible voters nationwide currently want to vote for the AfD. Another eight percent could basically imagine this. This value has not increased in recent weeks despite ongoing dissatisfaction with the federal government. The pollster concludes from this that the AfD may have already exhausted a large part of its current voter potential.
Güllner also commented critically on the situation of the Union and the SPD. Both parties did not utilize their voter potential. Many people are fundamentally inclined towards the CDU, CSU or SPD, but do not feel appealed to by the current personnel and content on offer. For the SPD, Güllner blames, among other things, the long-standing focus on minimum wages and citizens’ benefits. As a result, in his opinion, the party has lost many employees in regular employment relationships.