The island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean was targeted by two missiles.Image: keystone
Donald Trump gave Tehran a 48-hour ultimatum to open the crucial Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, a missile from the Iranians is causing uncertainty. Five questions and answers about the latest escalation over the weekend.
03/23/2026, 06:0303/23/2026, 06:03
Michael Wrase, Limassol / ch media
Donald Trump has threatened to bomb all Iranian power plants to force the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is blocked by Tehran. The war is about to escalate further.
How does the mullahs’ regime respond to Trump’s threat?
If there is even the slightest attack on Iran’s infrastructure, “the entire region will be in darkness,” said a statement from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. They published a graphic on which “targets” were marked across the entire Arabian Peninsula: These include the Barakah nuclear power plant in Abu Dhabi, gas power plants and seawater desalination plants in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and a huge solar park in the Emirates. The mullahs are also threatening to completely close the Strait of Hormuz.
Will the Iranians get serious?
It can be assumed that their threats will actually be followed by actions. Israeli Iran expert Danny Citrinowicz analyzes that the regime in Tehran, dominated by the Revolutionary Guards, is “more uncompromising and willing to take risks” and sees “the continuation of the confrontation – and not its quick resolution – as a strategic success”.
The regime is betting that the Iranians’ ability to suffer is greater than that of their opponents. In addition, the electricity in Iran cannot simply be switched off with a few bomb attacks: almost every Iranian city has its own power plant. There are more than 1,500 gas power plants in the country. The largest power plant Trump wanted to start with would be the nuclear power plant in the town of Buscher on the Persian Gulf. It runs on uranium supplied by Russia and is not considered part of Iran’s nuclear program. Tensions with Moscow would therefore probably be inevitable.
After the Diego Garcia attack: Is Europe in the crosshairs of the mullahs?
Technically, an Iranian missile could even reach Switzerland, as the attacks on the island of Diego Garcia showed. However, deployment against targets in Central Europe is considered highly unlikely. There is currently no reason why Tehran should attack Europe. The mullahs are more than “busy” with guided missile attacks against their enemies in the region. It is not Tehran’s missiles that threaten Central Europe, but the devastating economic consequences of a war that is currently spiraling completely out of control.
Crude oil prices are rising inexorably. This is already noticeable at petrol stations in Europe. In Spain, for example, fuel prices rose by over 30 percent. Gas prices in Europe have doubled to 50 euros per megawatt hour. In addition, almost a million tons of fertilizer cargo are stuck because of the Hormuz blockade. If farmers can no longer fertilize sufficiently, poor harvests could result, food will become more expensive, which will fuel inflation.
Tourism and aviation are already severely affected, as two important air traffic hubs, Dubai and Doha, are largely canceled and many airspaces in the region are closed. The longer the war lasts, the greater the economic damage will be for us.
Iran claim: Is the Strait of Hormuz really closed?
According to shipping intelligence service Lloyds of List, Iran has moved to a “selective blockade” of the strait. A new inspection and registration system for ships is currently being developed by Tehran. In addition, the Iranians would hold direct talks with countries such as India, China, Malaysia and Japan about safe passage through Iranian territorial waters in the strait.
Some shipping companies, Lloyds reports, paid protection money of around two million dollars for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. At least nine ships had already passed through the “safe corridor” created by Iran over the weekend. As long as the conflict continues, Lloyds believes that some entrepreneurs and ships could agree to a deal with the Iranians.
A ship in the Strait of Hormuz on March 22nd.Image: keystone
What happens after the war?
Despite all their martial threats, the Iranians are also striving for a ceasefire. But this must be linked to “absolute security guarantees”. In addition, after the end of the war, reparation payments would be required for the war damage caused, the Tehran Foreign Ministry recently stated.
Shipping circles in Dubai assume that Iran could charge a “fee” or protection money for passage through the Strait of Hormuz even after the end of the war; at least until a final negotiated solution has been reached and the question of reparation payments has been clarified.
Whether Donald Trump will agree to this remains an open question – given recent statements, it seems questionable. But Iran expert Danny Citrinowicz says:
“When the widespread flow of oil and market stability are at stake, strategic necessity often takes precedence over rhetoric.”
(aargauerzeitung.ch)