Oil refineries in Punto Fijo, Veneuzela.Image: Andrea Hernandez Briceno/Getty Images
Will US President Donald Trump soon send soldiers to Venezuela? The US sociologist David Smilde believes several scenarios are conceivable. And also sees reason for hope.
December 13, 2025, 12:19 p.mDecember 13, 2025, 12:19 p.m
Jona Spreter / Zeit Online
THE TIME: Mr. Smilde, the crisis between the USA and Venezuela continues to worsen. First there were attacks on alleged drug boats by the US military, then most recently the seizure of an oil tanker. What is the goal of this escalation?
David Smilde: US President Donald Trump’s Plan A is to increase military strength in the region to such an extent that Venezuela’s ruler Nicolás Maduro flees and his government resigns. The US wants to make it credible that an attack is imminent. But the whole thing could also be a bluff.
TIME: Bluff or not – what if the plan doesn’t work? Will the US then attack targets in Venezuela as Trump has threatened?
Smilde: I think it is very unlikely that US soldiers will invade Venezuela. I don’t think there are any plans for a longer occupation either. What Trump likes to do is drop bombs: this summer in Iran, during his first term in office in Syria.
TIME: When will we reach the point where we should talk about war?
Smilde: If there is a US attack and a Venezuelan counterattack – that would be a war. But simply dropping bombs, as happened in Iran, is not actually war. This is just an attack.
TIME: Do you think it’s likely that the US will bomb Venezuela?
Smilde: I think that is very possible.
TIME: What would that mean?
Smilde: It would be a dire scenario that could lead to a civil war in the country and chaotic conditions similar to those in Haiti. Democracy is unlikely to be achieved through the kind of minimalist military intervention envisioned by Donald Trump. The sociology of power is much more complicated.
TIME: Would this Plan B, a bombing of Venezuela, give the US access to the country’s oil reserves?
Smilde: That’s hard to say. Perhaps in such a case Maduro would engage in negotiations. Perhaps Trump would allow him to stay in power for a while if he canceled all existing treaties and agreements with China and Russia and instead gave the US privileged access to Venezuela’s oil.
TIME: What else does Trump expect from regime change?
Smilde: He could have Venezuela as a new US outpost. Latin America as the US’s backyard, just as the new national security strategy envisages.
TIME: Russian leader Vladimir Putin recently pledged his support to Maduro in a phone call. Would Russia – and China – just let an attack on Venezuela happen?
Smilde: I don’t think Russia and China would intervene in any meaningful way. Although Venezuela is also strategically important for Russia, Putin’s hands are tied because of the war of aggression against Ukraine. China maintains good relations with Venezuela, yes, but these have weakened significantly. Also because of the political and economic chaos that Maduro has caused.
TIME: What exactly is bothering China?
Smilde: China is striving to play a pioneering role in supporting emerging and developing countries. You are interested in a good image. In Latin America, Venezuela is the country they’ve given the most money to – and it’s a disaster. That is why China has recently stopped accommodating Maduro in extending loans or other aid. They consider him a burden.
TIME: If Russia and China didn’t interfere, what’s holding Trump back?
Smilde: The polls. The majority of Americans are against military action against Venezuela. At the same time, Trump’s own popularity ratings are also poor. He has to ask himself whether this is really the time for military strikes. On the other hand, Trump is in his second term in office, he doesn’t have to worry about his re-election – and in the last few months he has constantly done things that would have been unthinkable in his first term.
TIME: So the best case scenario for Trump would be that Maduro simply disappears?
Smilde: Exactly if Maduro simply went into exile in Russia. Then Trump could say: Look, you weak Democrats, peace through strength, I told you so!
TIME: What other options for de-escalation could there be?
Smilde: It is just as realistic that Trump will lose patience and say: This has always been about fighting drug smuggling, and we have now eradicated it. That would fit with the fact that Trump has often emphasized that he is actually not interested in regime change. Trump could also decide to bomb Venezuela and then claim that they only attacked drug labs and runways for drug runners. In Iran, too, the USA did not bring about a regime change after the bombing of the nuclear facilities. In addition, the USA of course has the opportunity to de-escalate militarily.
TIME: What would that look like?
Smilde: I’m thinking of a naval blockade. That the military presence in the region remains high and that the USA will no longer allow ships from the so-called shadow fleet to pass through. However, this would lead to a humanitarian crisis within Venezuela. Even worse than the ones we saw in 2017 and 2018.
TIME: You have to explain that.
Smilde: Eighty percent of Venezuela’s export revenue comes from oil. It is the main source of foreign currency, and that is exactly what the country needs to import all sorts of things – not only finished products, but also raw materials for local production. If there is no oil revenue, the entire economy comes to a standstill. When I was there in 2018, for example, you could no longer buy car parts or toilet paper because of mismanagement and the financial sanctions against Venezuela.
TIME: How do Venezuelans view their current situation?
Smilde: The vast majority of people want Maduro to no longer be in power. However, there is also a lot of reluctance among the population because no one knows what military action by the USA could look like and what consequences it would have. The people I talk to say that there isn’t really much discussion about it within Venezuela. This is of course due to the repression. You can’t just discuss politics on the street. But it’s also because people have already been through so much, have experienced so many disappointments, that they think to themselves: I won’t believe it until I see it. And so long they just get on with their lives.
TIME: So does this crisis offer the chance for something good, albeit hidden?
Smilde: Speaking from the perspective of Venezuelans, it is like this: They went to the polls in 2024, against all odds, but Maduro denied the opposition victory. And what has happened since then? The world has forgotten her. It took this action by Donald Trump for people to suddenly become interested in Venezuela again. I think this should be a lesson to us. If there is no longer committed diplomacy in the region, space is created for such developments. So I can understand Venezuelans and the Venezuelan diaspora if they believe that Trump is their only ally.
This article was first published on Zeit Online. Watson may have changed headings and subheadings. Here’s the original.