Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is under increasing pressure.Image: keystone
The fronts are hardened, the communication channels are fragile. Nevertheless, scenarios for a quick end to the war are being negotiated in Miami. However, according to historian Jeronim Perović, such a peace would have far-reaching consequences.
Dec 6, 2025, 7:23 p.mDec 6, 2025, 7:23 p.m
Natasha Hähni / ch media
The Ukrainian delegation is traveling again to Miami for peace negotiations with the Trump administration. The Russians previously rejected any compromises in their talks with the Americans. Do the conversations even achieve anything?
Jeronim Perovic: Ukraine needs peace. People long for peace. The war has now lasted almost four years. Therefore, all peace efforts are to be welcomed. However, as long as Russia advances on the battlefield and has the resources to continue the war, I do not see Moscow stopping hostilities any time soon.
What goals are the negotiating parties pursuing?
The goals are still incompatible. Russia is sticking to maximum demands. These include that Ukrainian troops will withdraw from the parts of Donbass that have not yet been conquered by Russia, that Ukraine will not be a NATO member and that its army will be massively reduced. The Ukrainian leadership has given up the illusion of returning to the 1991 borders. But no Ukrainian government can respond to Russia’s demands. That would be tantamount to giving up sovereignty and almost surrendering.
Under what conditions would peace even be conceivable? And what role does the USA play?
First of all, it should be noted that Ukraine is resisting Russian military pressure even after almost four years of war. Russia couldn’t simply overrun the country. As long as Western military aid continues, this will not happen. The problem is that Ukraine is currently under pressure not only on the battlefield, but also from the USA. It seems to me that Washington wants to force peace on Ukraine just so that Donald Trump can win and American companies can do business with Russia again. The American negotiators who negotiated peace with Putin in Moscow in early December were businessmen, not members of the government! In my opinion, that speaks volumes.
“The problem is that Ukraine is currently under pressure not only on the battlefield, but also from the USA.”Image: keystone
Putin has also threatened Europe with war. How seriously must Europe take this threat?
This is a massive rhetorical escalation. Against the backdrop of American peace efforts, Putin now portrays Europe as the force that wants to prevent peace. As if the Europeans want war, but Russia is looking for peace. If the Americans continue to support the Russians in their maximum demands against Ukraine and put pressure on Zelensky, then it will be very difficult for Ukraine.
How great is the domestic political support in Russia and Ukraine for a possible deal?
In Russia the population doesn’t have much say. But many are feeling the effects of the sanctions. Taxes were increased because oil revenues declined. That’s why many people would certainly be happy if the war ended soon. However, it must be made clear that many Russians certainly support their president’s policies. If the war ends in Russia’s favor, it will give Putin a boost domestically. Things look bleaker for Ukraine: If a peace is forced that is perceived as very disadvantageous, the country could plunge into a serious political crisis. It is therefore essential that Europe maintains aid to Ukraine, militarily, politically and economically.
What risks do the negotiations involve?
The problem at the moment is that Ukraine is in a weak negotiating position. She has no record of success on the battlefield. In addition, Zelensky’s government is also struggling domestically due to a major corruption scandal. I see the greatest risk in this situation that Washington will force Kiev to compromise, especially on territorial issues. Russia, on the other hand, is likely to be rewarded despite the aggression by recognizing its conquests and reintegrating the country into the global economy. It is completely unclear whether such a peace will be sustainable. For this, Ukraine would need solid security guarantees. And Kiev is unlikely to sign anything until it is clear what specific guarantees the country will receive. (aargauerzeitung.ch)