This is Eddy Wax, with Nicoletta Ionta and the rest of Euractiv’s newsroom. Welcome back to The Capitals.
In today’s report:
- Russia: As peace talks stall, Donald Trump said he’s “very disappointed” in Vladimir Putin
- Ukraine: Slovak PM Robert Fico will pass on “several messages” to Kyiv after a meeting with Russia’s leader
- Trade: The Commission is set to formally propose the EU-Mercosur deal
But first, we turn to Ukraine’s stalled accession bid…
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In the capital
Even Putin seems fine with Ukraine joining the EU. But the problem isn’t Russia – it’s Hungary.
That’s why whispers are circulating about a radical workaround to Budapest’s veto, which has frozen Ukraine’s membership aspirations and dealt collateral damage to Moldova’s parallel bid ahead of a knife-edge election.
Around a dozen countries want to change the EU’s rules so that only a weighted majority – not the full complement of 27 states – would be needed to open a fresh cluster of accession negotiations, the very stage blocking Kyiv and Chișinău. Unanimity would remain necessary at the start and end of the process, but not for all the myriad intermediate steps.
“We need a much cleaner process … with fewer possibilities for countries to veto,” Jessica Rosencrantz, Sweden’s minister for EU affairs, said. “We can’t just look the other way. We need to increase pressure.” She raised the idea at a meeting, noting that it could also apply to sanctions, another area where Hungary has dug in.
Rosencrantz is hardly alone. Foreign ministers from Germany, Italy, Slovenia, and Austria recently urged Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos to “simplify and streamline” the process for growing the club, warning the EU’s “credibility” was at stake.
Sigitas Mitkus, Lithuania’s vice-minister for foreign affairs, echoed: “We really are in favour of flexibilities in the enlargement process.”
It’s not just about Hungary. Bulgaria has for years frustrated North Macedonia’s candidacy. “We have to find a solution about bilateralisation to stop the penetration of Russian interests in the Western Balkan,” said Orhan Murtezani, North Macedonia’s minister of European affairs.
Yet the paradox is obvious: to change the rules, Hungary must agree. “It would be both legally and politically impossible,” said János Bóka, the country’s EU minister. Luxembourg’s Deputy PM Xavier Bettel was gentler, if no less resigned: “This won’t fly now,” he said, suggesting a more gradual approach.
Why, then, pursue such an idea? There are few other ways the EU26 can pressure Hungary to drop its veto. With Russian bombs still falling on Ukraine and Moldova preparing for pivotal elections, the nations are under pressure to conjure progress, however modest, so pro-European leaders have something to take home.
In Moldova today, Kos will unveil a call for projects under the EU’s €1.8 billion Growth Plan. “It’s a huge amount of money,” she insisted.
EU officials stress that technical work to prepare Ukraine and Moldova’s entry is continuing apace, but an idea to let Chișinău move ahead alone was dropped after Kyiv objected.
The only real prospect for change may be Hungary’s election next year, which could see PM Viktor Orbán voted out. Until then, enlargement remains stuck.
(All six officials quoted in this story – Jessica Rosencrantz, Sigitas Mitkus, Orhan Murtezani, János Bóka, Xavier Bettel, Marta Kos – spoke directly to me.)
Got a tip, rumour, or story idea? Drop me a line by email – or, for the more discreet, via Signal: @EddyWax.94
Trump says he’s ‘disappointed’ in Putin as Fico taps in
The US president said Tuesday that he’s “very disappointed” in Putin after Washington’s latest efforts to broker a peace hit an impasse. In a radio interview, he said “we had a great relationship,” reflecting on his long-standing personal ties with the Russian leader.
Trump did not outline what consequences Russia might face, even as his 50-day deadline for a ceasefire lapsed this week. When he issued the ultimatum on July 14, Trump threatened to impose “secondary tariffs” on Moscow, but the White House has yet to announce such measures.
In the meantime, Slovak PM Robert Fico said he’ll relay “several messages and conclusions” to Volodymyr Zelenskyy after he held a private hour-long conversation with Putin following their official meeting in China.
Fico is scheduled to meet the Ukrainian president on Friday in Uzhhorod, a border city, in what will be their first encounter since the Slovak leader started his fourth term – though he has already met Putin three times in less than a year.
Commission to sign off controversial Mercosur trade deal
The Commission is set to formally propose the long-stalled EU-Mercosur trade agreement today, advancing a pact Ursula von der Leyen politically sealed last year with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay – which she has promoted as a counterweight to worsening trade ties with the US.
The deal faces strong resistance, particularly in France, where farmers and environmental groups fear it will undercut domestic production. The timing of the proposal – as PM François Bayrou stares down a confidence vote – looks like peak Brussels opportunism.
President Emmanuel Macron’s team has pushed for extra safeguards on agriculture and quietly negotiated a secret “accompanying document” with the Commission. “Only the Élysée Palace has the text,” a French government source told Euractiv’s Alice Bergoënd.
The Commission could also split the pact, leaving only the trade chapter to be ratified by Parliament and EU governments in Council – a move that would sidestep messy fights in national parliaments. But even that path looks bumpy. France and Poland remain opposed but are unable to muster a blocking minority.
Meanwhile, French liberal MEP Pascal Canfin is mobilising a cross-party push to challenge the agreement before the EU’s top court. My colleague Sofia Sanchez Manzanaro has the curtain raiser here.
Brussels ties up MFF loose ends
The Commission will today adopt and present the final fragments of its budget plan, covering nuclear power, rule of law and single market support – elements that were missing from its chaotic July proposal.
But the broader puzzle is unresolved. Horizon research survived with a doubled €175 billion allocation. “We made it,” Research Commissioner Ekaterina Zaharieva told academics yesterday. Yet nobody knows how it will share a “single rulebook” with the €234 billion industrial competitiveness fund, or whether academic independence will withstand von der Leyen’s push for control.
The capitals
BERLIN
Friedrich Merz is pushing for steep cuts to the country’s social safety net to help plug Germany’s budget gap. In an interview last night, the chancellor said €5 billion – roughly 10% in unemployment benefit spending – could be realistically saved, directly challenging his coalition partners, the Social Democrats, who have firmly opposed reducing welfare.
PARIS
Far-right leader Marine Le Pen urged an “ultra-fast” dissolution of parliament and fresh elections after meeting PM François Bayrou, who faces a confidence vote on 8 September. She said her National Rally party would back the motion, further dimming Bayrou’s prospects as Macron resists another snap election. Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure said last night he was prepared to serve as prime minister if Bayrou falls.
BRUSSELS
Belgium will recognise a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly and impose sanctions on Israel over the Gaza war, according to Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot. But there are strings attached: Hamas must release the remaining Israeli hostages and step aside from any governing role. The decision, forged after weeks of coalition infighting, places Brussels alongside a growing number of governments edging toward recognition.
WARSAW
President Karol Nawrocki will meet Trump in Washington today in his first foreign trip since taking office. The visit coincides with an announcement by Prime Minister Donald Tusk that Poland has joined the “trillion-dollar club” of economies, a milestone that only 20 countries have reached.
MADRID
Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez will meet his UK counterpart, Keir Starmer, in London today to sign their first post-Brexit “strategic agreement,” covering trade, climate and migration. The summit follows a Gibraltar deal that will remove border checks by 2026 and strengthen cross-border cooperation.
LUXEMBOURG
This capital will join NATO’s PURL initiative to help finance U.S.-made weapons for Ukraine, becoming the ninth country to sign on. The scheme provides $500 million in military equipment, with major contributions already pledged by the Netherlands, Germany and Canada.
LISBON
The Council of Europe warned yesterday that senior figures in Portugal’s government and police remain insufficiently monitored for corruption risks, despite recent reforms. In a new report, the group’s anti-graft body, Greco, said Portugal has only partially implemented most past recommendations and called for stronger integrity checks on top officials.
Also on Euractiv
Europe imagined itself reborn this year. Instead, Simon Nixon writes, it faces weakness: Trump’s trade deal lays bare dependence on America, Germany is stagnant, and France edges toward fiscal crisis.
With populists surging and the single market fraying, the continent risks drifting into its own “Century of Humiliation.” In his op-ed for Euractiv, Nixon, author of the Wealth of Nations newsletter, argues that only collective ambition – shared defence, infrastructure, and borrowing – can rescue Europe from decline in a multipolar world.
Europeans are increasingly preoccupied with war and the economy, and less with climate change. In a new survey, 37% said the bloc should prioritise defence and security, 32% named economic strength, and just 17% pointed to climate action.
The results underscore how inflation, war and global uncertainty have eclipsed the “green wave” that swept the 2019 elections, even as younger voters and northern countries continue to prioritise climate as a top concern.
Agenda
Informal meeting of energy ministers takes place in Copenhagen
Costa visits Austria; meets Chancellor Stocker
Metsola meets Estonian President Karis
Virkkunen delivers a speech at the Bruegel Annual Meetings
College of Commissioners meets in Brussels
Entre nous
ROTTEN LUCK: A Brussels official, who told us this week that the city’s gang violence was limited to “rotten” areas far from the expat bubble, accused me of mangling his words. Unfortunately for him, Le Soir checked the recording. Alain Hutchinson did say exactly that. Read their pick-up here.
PRESS ROOM: Olof Gill has been promoted as one of the deputy spokespeople of the European Commission.
Contributors: Sofía Sanchez Manzanaro, Thomas Moller-Nielsen, Elisa Braun, Alexandra Brzozowski, Nick Alipour, Jacob Wulff Wold, Martina Monti, Aurélie Pugnet, Paulo Agostinho, Aleksandra Krzysztoszek, Natália Silenská
Editors: Christina Zhao, Sofia Mandilara
