There will be another meeting in the coming days: Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyj in front of the White House.Image: keystone
Is a peace solution for Ukraine imminent? Given Russian reservations, this is probably unrealistic. But what if Russia cancels? Three scenarios appear possible.
November 26, 2025, 10:01 amNovember 26, 2025, 10:01 am
Simon Cleven / t-online
Talks about a possible peace solution for Ukraine are in full swing. The impetus for the new developments was a 28-point plan that the USA had developed with Russia and which, above all, corresponded to the Kremlin’s wishes. Then a US delegation met with Ukrainian and European representatives in Geneva over the weekend. The Europeans also presented their own plan. After these consultations, there is probably little left of the first plan, which primarily contained Russian demands.
According to Ukrainian information, Washington and Kiev now agree on the most important questions of a peace plan. So now Russia has to react. Earlier this week, a Kremlin delegation met with US representatives in Abu Dhabi. The Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov also traveled. Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said on Tuesday that “tremendous progress” had been made. However, there are still “some delicate but not insurmountable details that need to be clarified.” But it is questionable whether Russia will engage in serious negotiations.
Political scientist Carlo Masala tells t-online: “It is highly likely that Russia will reject any peace plan that does not amount to a surrender by Ukraine.” But both the European and the new Ukrainian-American plan contain some points that are particularly important to Kiev. “This is not acceptable for the Russians.”
Prof. Dr. Carlo Masala (born 1968) is a security expert and professor of international politics at the University of the Federal Armed Forces in Munich.Image: imago
Russia, it currently appears, given the first critical voices from Moscow, is unlikely to engage in serious negotiations about a peace solution. So what could happen next?
Scenario 1: Political blockade – the war continues unchanged, Trump withdraws
According to Masala, this is the most likely scenario. As a result of the blockade, however, there is a risk “that Trump will then completely withdraw from the Ukraine war,” explains the professor of international politics at the University of the Bundeswehr in Munich. So far, the Europeans’ strategy has been to keep Trump in the game “until he realizes that this is his war too,” said Masala. “But that’s exactly what Trump wants to avoid at all costs.”
So far, the Europeans have succeeded primarily by appeasing Trump and making a deal with him: Instead of supplying weapons directly to Ukraine, the USA is now selling them to its NATO partners in Europe, who then pass the weapons on to Kiev. But Trump has always been a stranger to the Ukraine war and has denied any responsibility. Instead, he usually speaks of “Biden’s war,” a conflict for which he blames his predecessor Joe Biden.
However, Trump also moved into the Oval Office with a promise to end the war in Ukraine as quickly as possible. However, ten months later and after several attempts at a diplomatic solution, the war continues unabated. There is therefore a fear in Europe that Trump could finally lose interest if his so-called peace plan also fails. But what then?
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte (l.) next to Donald Trump in the Oval Office (archive photo): In July they reached an agreement that NATO partners could buy weapons for Kiev in the USA. image: imago
“The USA could then stop selling arms to NATO partners and no longer provide Kiev with intelligence information,” explains Masala. That would not only put the Ukrainians in trouble, but also Europe. “The Europeans would then have to make a decision: should they continue their support for Ukraine or not?” said the political scientist. The Europeans could indeed deliver their intelligence findings to Kyiv. “But these would not be as accurate and diverse as those of the Americans. We don’t have the skills for that.”
The expert also points out that the USA under Trump has been distancing itself from Europe for months anyway. The original 28-point plan, which was close to Russia, further contributed to this distancing from NATO and Europe. Among other things, the USA offered itself as a mediator between NATO and Russia – even though it is itself a member of the alliance.
“To do this, they are withdrawing troops from Romania, stopping training missions in the Baltics and sending the aircraft carrier ‘USS Gerald R. Ford’ to the Caribbean,” explains Masala. The world’s largest aircraft carrier was previously stationed in the Mediterranean, near Europe, but is now intended to support the US drug war in the Caribbean. “A withdrawal from the Ukraine war would further manifest the farewell to Europe in installments.”
Scenario 2: Trump increases pressure on Kyiv
In this scenario, the US would not take the final step of completely withdrawing from the war, but would continue to work towards an end to the war. If Russia rejects a plan negotiated by the USA, Ukraine and Europe, Trump could put renewed pressure on Kiev – with the aim of getting Ukraine to bow to certain Russian demands.
“The US could initially try to force Ukraine to make concessions to Russia by threatening to stop arms sales and intelligence information,” explains Masala. “After everything Zelensky has said recently, Kiev probably wouldn’t give in.”
After the first version of a Russian-American peace plan became public, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the population in a speech on Friday. “Ukraine could be faced with a very difficult choice right now: either lose dignity or risk losing a key partner. Either the difficult 28 points or an extremely difficult winter,” said Zelenskyj.
Volodymyr Zelenskyj and his wife Olena Zelenska commemorate the victims of the Holodomor in Kiev: This is the name given to the famine in the Soviet Union in the 1930s that was caused by the Soviet leadership. image: imago
However, he promised not to “betray” his country and to work on alternatives. It is therefore unlikely that Zelensky will bow to excessive pressure. In addition, that would probably also mean his political end, as he has currently lost a lot of trust in domestic politics due to a corruption scandal in his own environment. Zelenskyj probably wants to travel to Washington this month to resolve the last points of contention about a peace solution with Trump. Will Trump agree to this or will the Ukrainian face public humiliation like during his visit in February?
If the pressure from the White House on Kiev increases, “Europe would come under pressure to act, as in the first scenario,” says Carlo Masala. Trump’s spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt had already stated on Monday that the USA could not supply weapons to NATO “forever”.
Unlike the USA, the continent remains united with Ukraine, with a few exceptions such as Hungary and Slovakia. There is an awareness in Europe that the fate of Ukraine is closely linked to the security of the continent. The Europeans can therefore have no interest in Kiev entering negotiations weakened or being forced to make far-reaching concessions to Russia.
Masala therefore demands: “Europe must now finally decide how to deal with the war on its doorstep – alone, without the USA.” So far, a negotiation process has still been the method of choice. “However, I don’t see Russia coming to the negotiating table at all. If so, then only to delay,” said the expert.
Scenario 3: Trump increases pressure on Moscow
At the end of October, Trump imposed sanctions against Russia for the first time in his new term in office. The punitive measures affected the large oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil. He expressed his frustration with Kremlin leader Putin: “Every time I talk to Vladimir, they are good conversations, but they don’t lead anywhere,” said Trump.
Couldn’t another Russian rejection in the negotiations lead to further US sanctions? Some resources are still available to the USA: Washington could release the Tomahawk cruise missile for Kiev. Due to the high range and penetration of the weapon system, Russia would come under greater military pressure. Further economic sanctions are also conceivable, which could cause further damage to the already struggling Kremlin economy.
“The sanctions against Russian oil were not as comprehensive as the US instruments would allow.”
Carlo Masala
Expert Carlo Masala says: “I don’t think that’s very likely.” Trump was never actually prepared to deliver Tomahawk cruise missiles. “The sanctions against Russian oil were also not as comprehensive as the US instruments would allow.” For example, the world’s largest natural gas company, Gazprom, has not yet been affected.
If, contrary to expectations, Trump decides to take this route, Europe would again be under pressure. The US President has been criticizing for months that EU countries continue to purchase oil from Russia. As a result of Moscow’s war of aggression, the EU issued extensive import bans on Russian energy sources such as coal and oil, but exceptions still apply. Only at the weekend did he repeat the accusation that the EU was indirectly financing Russia’s war of aggression.
“In addition, Russia could be completely excluded from the Swift banking system,” said Masala. This means that Russian banks would hardly be able to make international payments anymore. Trade with important partners such as China would be severely restricted.
“All of these are options that exist to increase the pressure on Russia,” says Masala. “However, I don’t see that Trump is willing to do that.”