Swiss exports to the USA are currently experiencing a downturn.Image: sda
interview
In the third quarter of 2025, Swiss exports to the USA fell by 8.2 percent. HSG economist Stefan Legge classifies the development and says what options the Swiss export industry now has.
October 21, 2025, 4:02 p.mOctober 21, 2025, 4:38 p.m
In its press release, the Federal Office of Customs and Border Security (BAZG) explicitly mentions a decline in exports to the USA in the third quarter of this year. They see it a little less negatively. For what reason?
Stefan Legge: If you compare the third quarter with the second, the result is indeed a decline. However, this finding must be placed in a larger context.
Please.
If you look at exports to the USA, you will notice how important pharmaceuticals and gold are. Due to the uncertainty in the run-up to Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” in April, Swiss pharmaceutical companies brought forward an unusually large number of exports into the first quarter. It is normal for there to be declines in the second and third quarters. However, this distorts the result enormously.
To person
Dr. Stefan Legge is a lecturer in economics at the University of St.Gallen. He heads the tax and trade policy department and is also deputy director of the Institute for Law & Economics. His dissertation was awarded the prize for the best dissertation in economics in 2016. Legge researches international trade and political economy.
Image: zvg
They prefer to compare the first three quarters of this year with the first three of last year.
Exactly. Then it becomes clear: Switzerland exported 4.6 percent more during this period in 2025 than in 2024. So things don’t look that bad.
Did you expect that?
No. The US tariff rate of 39 percent for Switzerland is already steep. However, as mentioned, exports in the pharmaceutical sector have a significant impact on the overall result. There are no tariffs yet and it is quite possible that Swiss pharmaceutical companies are still preferring exports out of fear because they assume that Trump will also introduce a high tariff rate for pharmaceutical products. There are also no customs duties on gold. That’s why you still have to view the good export figures with caution.
The current figures show: Exports from the Swiss machinery industry will decline significantly from August. This export sector’s concerns about Trump’s tariffs have come true.
Absolutely. The situation is very bad for many companies in the machinery sector. You can’t just pass on a tariff of 39 percent that came out of the blue. The slump is massive, exports are currently several hundred million francs below the previous year. In addition, the Swiss franc has appreciated against the US dollar. This makes life even more difficult for the machine industry.
The export debate in Switzerland focuses heavily on goods. Why aren’t we talking more intensively about the export of services?
We are currently evaluating it. It turns out that in the second quarter of this year, imports of services from the USA fell slightly and exports rose slightly. On the one hand, why people don’t talk about it more has to do with the fact that this data is not recorded so precisely. There is no such detailed and precise breakdown as with goods. On the other hand, there are almost no tariffs on services, which is why this part of trade was uninteresting for a long time. But that could change soon.
It is currently unclear whether and how high Donald Trump will impose pharmaceutical tariffs on Switzerland.Image: keystone
For what reason?
Because of Trump’s tariffs. It is conceivable that Swiss companies will no longer sell a machine for 1,000 francs as before, but now for 500 francs. In return, they charge more for machine maintenance and other services. Companies will make this change on a large scale if the tariff rate remains so high. But of course, such an adjustment of value creation takes time.
“It doesn’t matter at all whether the USA, as a gigantic economy, can now export a few tons of beef to Switzerland.”
Overall, when it comes to the US, you see the glass as half full. Why this confidence?
The USA is Switzerland’s most important retail partner when it comes to exporting goods. However, exports to the USA (excluding gold and pharmaceuticals) currently only make up 1.8 percent of our foreign trade. The US tariffs are not a huge shock for the Swiss economy as a whole. The most important trading partner is still the EU. It is of greater concern for Switzerland that trade with Germany, France and Great Britain is currently stagnating.
An exciting fact at the end. If you look at the figures for 2025, you can see that 99 percent of imports of goods from the USA to Switzerland are duty-free. Why wasn’t this argument enough in the customs negotiations?
This fact has already caught on with the negotiators, but the key man in the White House saw it differently. Nothing is likely to change about that. In addition to the negative trade balance, Trump has always argued with the high Swiss agricultural tariffs. It doesn’t really matter whether the USA, as a gigantic economy, can now export a few tons of beef to Switzerland. Especially: Reducing tariffs specifically for beef from the USA is not compatible with international trade law. A free trade agreement would be needed, but that is currently completely unrealistic.
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