European countries are inching towards a framework of Western security guarantees for Kyiv after Donald Trump hinted at a US “presence” in Ukraine, even as the details remain unclear.
Monday’s White House summit between Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and six European leaders produced a clearer – if still tentative – US commitment to support Ukraine’s security.
A day later, EU27 leaders, and separately members of the ‘Coalition of the Willing’, were briefed via videoconference on the talks in Washington.
“Now is the time to accelerate our practical work to put in place a guarantee similar to NATO’s Article 5 with continued US engagement,” European Council President António Costa told EU leaders in Tuesday’s follow-up meeting.
Drafting a framework
European officials say that negotiators will now begin sketching a blueprint of security guarantees intended to pave the way for a possible meeting between Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin.
National security advisers from participating countries hope to draft a skeleton framework over the next week, people familiar with the talks say, before a potential follow-up call with Trump.
A British read-out of Tuesday’s Coalition of the Willing meeting separately said that “planning teams would meet with their US counterparts in the coming days to further strengthen plans to deliver robust security guarantees.”
So far, a broad consensus on the security guarantees has emerged around three elements: a well-equipped and well-armed Ukrainian armed forces without size restrictions, a multinational “reassurance force” after a ceasefire, and some form of Washington backing, although the scope of American involvement remains vague.
EU leaders also voiced wide support for NATO-style commitments – “Article 5-like protections,” as US officials increasingly describe them. While this is a reference to NATO’s mutual defence clause, the level of protection remains largely unclear.
They also acknowledged that hammering out the details will require painstaking negotiation.
Overall, European officials privately note a subtle but telling shift in Trump’s rhetoric: from mere “coordination” of security arrangements to a “presence of the US.”
Trump, speaking the morning after White House meetings on Tuesday, told Fox News that US forces could assist Ukraine’s allies in deterring future Russian attacks.
“When it comes to security, [Europeans are] willing to put people on the ground,” Trump said, adding Europe would “front load” them, including “boots on the ground.”
“We’re willing to help them with things, especially, probably talk about by air, because there’s nobody [has the] kind of stuff we have,” he added, indicating Washington could focus on air defence elements in such plans.
EU foreign and defence ministers, meeting informally in Copenhagen next week, are expected to discuss security guarantees, the bloc’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas said.
“The EU will contribute to these security guarantees, notably by the training of Ukrainian soldiers and strengthening Ukraine’s armed forces and defence industry,” she said.
Keeping Putin in check
Timing remains the thorniest question. Officials hope to have the framework ready before a potential Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, which could take place within two to three weeks.
In Monday’s talks at the White House, several European leaders made the pitch to the US side that any Russian refusal to attend such a meeting – or any failure to make progress – should trigger the next round of sanctions.
“Whether we call it a ceasefire or a truce is secondary; what matters is that we maintain pressure through sanctions if Russia does not comply,” Costa told EU leaders.
The European Commission says the next package of measures against Moscow – the nineteenth – could be ready by early September, if required.
(mm)
