According to the post-war constitution, Japan is theoretically not allowed to have a standing military – in practice, the right to self-defense allows increasing rearmament. Image: Shutterstock
There is contact with Chinese fighter jets over Japanese waters. This further inflames tensions in the region. What conditions prevail in the Western Pacific?
December 7, 2025, 5:01 p.mDec 7, 2025, 5:11 p.m
Lennart Jerke / Zeit Online
After military incidents In the East China Sea, concerns are growing about a possible escalation of tensions between China and Japan, with both countries accusing each other of provocation. The conditions in the region are complex. How do the two countries relate to each other? What role do the USA and Taiwan play? We answer the most important questions.
What happened?
There was brief contact between Japanese and Chinese fighter aircraft off the Okinawa Islands. According to Japan’s Defense Ministry, within a few hours there were two incidents in which two Chinese J-15 fighter jets entered Japan’s airspace and targeted Japanese fighter pilots with their fire control radar. The radar helps pilots keep moving targets in their sights – giving them the ability to fire on them if necessary. The aircraft are said to have been launched from the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning mainly used in the western Pacific is.
Japan’s Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi described the action as “dangerous and extremely regrettable.” In response to the incident, Japan itself sent aircraft. However, there was no damage or injuries.
China’s navy immediately dismissed the allegations as “completely inconsistent with the facts.” Rather, a Japanese fighter jet repeatedly approached Chinese units and disturbed them during training. The incident comes against the backdrop of deteriorating relations between Japan and China.
What is the relationship between Japan and China?
Japan and China are like this East Asian scientist Joachim Glaubitz (PDF) according to the “strategically most important, politically and culturally influential states of the Asia-Pacific region.” The relationship between the two countries has long been characterized by mistrust and rivalry, as China sees Japan as the only serious competitor in the race for supremacy in the region.
Although both countries have close economic and technological relations, at the same time China’s claims to territorial power in the East China Sea are a threat to the Japanese economy. Many important sea and trade routes run through the area, but Japan cannot protect them militarily, said Glaubitz.
While China has been massively rearming its military for many years, Japanese politics since the end of the Second World War have been predominantly pacifist. The post-war constitution prohibits the country from the right to wage sovereign war. Through the right of self-defense, Japan can still maintain a military, which is, however, greatly inferior to its direct competitor, China. However, in view of the increasing aggressiveness of its neighbors China, Russia and North Korea, Japan has also begun to build up its military in recent years.
What role does Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi play?
Despite the clear competition, both states have tried to maintain somewhat friendly relations in the past. These efforts suffered a setback at the beginning of November. The newly appointed Prime Minister of Japan, Sanae Takaichihad described possible military actions by China off Taiwan as a potential “existential threat to Japan”. Since the postwar constitution stipulates that Japanese forces may only be mobilized in the event of a threat to the country’s existence, the statement was interpreted as a threat to China that an attack on Taiwan could trigger a military response from Japan.
Video: watson/Lucas Zollinger
The incident triggered a chain reaction. While the Japanese government tried to put the Prime Minister’s statements into perspective, the opposition and US President Donald Trump criticized them called for moderationTakaichi basically stuck to her statement. She has to: With her anti-China stance, the right-wing conservative politician won the election campaign in which she campaigned with her motto “Japan is back!” promised a new strength and defensiveness for the country. After she toughened her rhetoric against China, her poll numbers rose. A departure from this course could therefore endanger their power base.
How did China react?
Meanwhile, China showed a similarly sharp reaction to Takaichi’s statements. In a now-deleted X post, the consul general in the Japanese metropolis of Osaka wrote that a head who interferes should be “cut off”.
China issued travel warnings to Japan and suspended imports of Japanese seafood. In addition, cultural events by Japanese artists were canceled at short notice. China also increased its presence in Japanese waters and left For example, the coast guard patrols the Senkaku Islands controlled by Japanwhich China also claims for itself.
What role does Taiwan play?
The role of Taiwan is central to the current conflict. China does not recognize the island nation and considers it a breakaway region. The government in Beijing is exerting increasing pressure and repeatedly threatening Taiwan with its military. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan cannot be ruled out.
This causes international concern because a reaction from the USA is expected in such a case. They have always positioned themselves as the protective power of the democratic island state. Among other things, they support Taiwan with military equipment and regularly emphasize that a Chinese attack on the country would have consequences. Japan, meanwhile, is a known, close ally of the United States. However, Takaichi’s implication that an attack on Taiwan could also trigger a military mobilization by Japan is new.
Donald Trump and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi at a US military base in Japan in October 2025.Image: keystone
What conditions prevail in the East China Sea?
Conditions in the region are correspondingly tense. On the one hand, there is China’s expansionist policy with its threatening gestures towards Taiwan. On the other hand, Japan, which recently also increased its military presence in the East China Sea – for example through the planned deployment of missiles near Taiwan – which means China, in turn, sees threats.
Added to this is the ambivalent role of the USA. On the one hand, the country has a close partnership with Japan. Donald Trump has recently been increasingly urging Japan and South Korea to arm themselves more; the US military has numerous bases in both countries. If there were actually a violent confrontation between the USA and China in Taiwan, Japanese territory could also be the target of Chinese attacks.
At the same time, the US President and Chinese President Xi Jinping recently approached each other back on. The US tariffs on Chinese goods imposed by Trump had provoked a trade dispute, which Trump, however, ended during his state visit to China at the end of October declared over had. Both heads of state spoke after one another joint meeting for wanting to be “partners and friends”. This fueled fears that the US could turn away from Taiwan in an emergency.
With material from the news agencies dpa, Reuters and AFP
This article was first published on Zeit Online. Watson may have changed headings and subheadings. Here’s the original.