A controversial change to a frontline map apparently influenced a million-dollar bet on the course of the war in eastern Ukraine. Right in the middle: the renowned Institute for the Study of War. The case raises fundamental questions about its credibility.
December 15, 2025, 10:25 p.mDecember 15, 2025, 10:25 p.m
Fabian Hock / ch media
Media, experts and even governments rely on their maps and analyzes of the war in Ukraine: The Institute for the Study of War, or ISW for short, is one of the most important sources of war information in the world. Now the renowned institute based in Washington has a serious credibility problem.
Russian soldiers in the disputed Kharkiv region: The front line has now become the subject of online betting.Image: keystone
The reason is an incident on November 15th – and how the institute is dealing with it.
That day, users of the online betting platform Polymarket placed high stakes on Russian troops taking the eastern Ukrainian city of Myrnohrad by evening. The basis for the evaluation of such bets is, among other things, the daily front cards from the ISW.
Shortly before the bet was settled, a strategically important point in Myrnohrad was suddenly marked on the ISW map as being controlled by Russia – although there was no reliable evidence of this. Polymarket interpreted this as a Russian gain in territory and paid out the bets, resulting in extreme profits for individual users. A total of 1.3 million are said to have been used.
Myrnohrad is located in the Donetsk border region.Image: Getty
The next morning the change on the ISW map had disappeared. Two days later, the ISW said in a statement that it was “unauthorized” processing that had been carried out without authorization. A little later, the name of an ISW geodata employee disappeared from the website.
The online magazine “Responsible Statecraft” reported on the case. The portal is part of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a Washington-based foreign policy think tank. The magazine is based on research by the US tech medium “404 Media”, which first made the case public.
Accusation of inadequate information
The ISW said on November 17 that an unauthorized and unauthorized change to its interactive Ukraine map was made on the night of November 15-16 and removed before regular operations began. The change had no impact on the ISW’s official situation maps or analyses.
At CH Media’s request, the institute only sent a general statement: “ISW is committed to providing reliable and objective assessments of conflicts that pose a threat to the United States and its allies and partners in order to inform decision-makers, journalists, humanitarian organizations and citizens about devastating wars,” it says. ISW has become aware “that some organizations and individuals are promoting bets on the outcome of the war in Ukraine and that ISW’s cards are being used to process these bets. ISW expressly disapproves of such activities and strongly objects to the use of our cards for these purposes, for which we expressly do not grant consent.”
The ISW did not respond to the question about the analyst who changed the maps or about the inadequate processing of the case.
The case is causing consternation among security experts. Michael Kofman, one of the most renowned military experts ever, wrote on X that he hoped that the ISW would clear up the allegations.
Ulrich Kühn from the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg sharply criticizes the institute. In an interview with CH Media, he says: “How can it be that the ISW obviously employs people like this analyst, who apparently works into his own pocket?”
The way the case was handled was also scandalous, says Kühn. Instead of clarifying things properly, the ISW apparently tried to “keep a lid on it” and only timidly went public when individual media reported on the incident.
Security expert Ulrich KühnImage: ifsh
Kühn is head of the arms control and new technologies research area. He publishes regularly on the Ukraine war. The case is so shocking because the ISW is one of the top three leading sources in the world when it comes to real-time tracking of the Russian war of aggression.
The institute’s analyzes are cited by governments, including the British one on a regular basis. The fact that a non-governmental organization with this prominence does not better clarify such a case is “extremely worrying”. The ISW’s “gold standard” when it comes to Ukraine analyzes is “over and done with,” says Kühn. “Now you could doubt everything.”
Betting on the sufferings of war
In this case, however, it is not just the behavior of the ISW that is questionable. The focus is also on the fact that ordinary citizens can bet on individual battles in the Ukraine war.
Around two weeks ago, another case caused a stir in which war cards from Ukraine also played a role. The Ukrainian project Deep State Map accused a US betting provider of illegally misusing its maps for betting purposes.
Security expert Kühn is also horrified: “People are betting on the misery and violence in war,” he says. This also opens the door to possible manipulation. “That’s perverse,” says Kühn. In any case, the ISW would do well to clarify the case as transparently as possible.