All indications are that by the end of Monday, François Bayrou will no longer be France’s prime minister.
His gambit at the end of last month to call today’s parliamentary confidence vote was designed to try and force through the 2026 budget. Instead, the National Rally (RN) and the Socialist Party (PS) both swiftly confirmed their intention to bring the centrist down.
With Bayrou’s fate sealed, President Emmanuel Macron now faces unappealing options on what to do next.
Betting on the “Central Bloc” (Likelihood: 6/10)
Assuming Bayrou falls, Macron’s first move is likely to be to appoint a new prime minister. The sooner the better, given anti-austerity demonstrations and strikes are due to begin on 10 September.
Macron could once again gamble on one of his loyalists – ministers Sébastien Lecornu (Defence), Gérald Darmanin (Justice) or Catherine Vautrin (Labour) – though all risk being immediately rejected by the divided National Assembly.
After granting Bayrou a reprieve during the 2025 budget vote, PS spokespeople say the party has no intention of sparing a revamped version of the previous government, nor of participating in any “Republican unity coalition”.
Meanwhile, RN leader Marine Le Pen has already called for an “ultra-rapid” dissolution of the assembly and appears to determined to force fresh elections.
The survival chances of a government once again relying on the “central bloc” seem limited, since it can only muster 210 deputies (91 Macron’s Ensemble movement, 49 Republicans, 36 MoDem and 34 Horizons) out of 577 in the Assembly.
The Socialist option (Likelihood: 4/10)
Macron could reach out to the left. The PS says it is “ready to govern”, but without Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s far-left France Unbowed (LFI), with whom relations have cooled in recent months.
It’s unclear whether LFI would block a Socialist-led government.
By combining PS deputies with those of other left-wing forces – minus LFI – the new executive would only gather 121 seats. To survive, it would therefore need to rely on the support (or non-obstruction) of all other parties in Parliament.
“We want to change how power is exercised in France and open discussions with other groups in the Assembly,” explains Socialist MEP Christophe Clergeau.
The Socialists want to negotiate a €22 billion savings plan for 2026 and have it adopted without resorting to Article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows a law to pass without a vote.
The staunch right-winger Laurent Wauquiez said last week that his Republican (LR) deputies would not “censure a Socialist government”, so as to preserve the country’s “stability”.
A technocratic government (Likelihood: 2/10)
To emerge from the political crisis and reassure French creditors, Macron could choose to appoint a prime minister removed from the fray of French politics. The idea would be to form a technocratic government tasked with handling day-to-day affairs.
According to a recent poll, a slim majority of French citizens may support this.
It had already been considered in summer 2024, during the long weeks of reflection the president allowed himself before appointing right-winger Michel Barnier.
The names of European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde and former European Commissioner Thierry Breton have circulated in recent days, though both are strongly associated with the right. Another candidate could doubtless be found.
In Italy, the “national unity” government set up a few years ago by Mario Draghi lasted just under two years, but it mainly paved the way for Giorgia Meloni’s rise.
There is no doubt that Le Pen would remember that precedent if Macron pursued this path.
Boosting the RN (0.5/10)
The option of nominating a far-right prime minister is highly (highly) improbable, and nobody seriously believes that Macron would take the risk of giving a leg-up to the RN, but who knows? It is the largest party in the National Assembly.
Of course, even if RN president Jordan Bardella accepted the post, and even if he managed to negotiate an alliance with the 49 LR deputies, he would immediately be censured by all the other parties in the assembly.
Yet this brief stint in power would be enough to set a historic precedent. For the first time since the Second World War, the far right would have reached the top of the state.
Dissolving the assembly (Likelihood: 1/10)
Macron has no intention of dissolving the National Assembly again, as he did last year following the far right’s strong showing in European elections. But if the next government is immediately brought down and the political crisis drags on, he may not have a choice.
The prospect of fresh elections is, in any case, being taken seriously by all political forces in the country. On 1 September, the RN convened its campaign committee, and the far-right party is fast-tracking the selection of future candidates.
According to a recent poll, the RN would come first in voting intentions if new legislative elections were held, with 31% of the vote. The left-wing alliance would obtain 23.5%, ahead of Macron’s Ensemble movement (14%) and the Republicans (10.5%).
“A new election would only confirm the division of the National Assembly and prolong political instability,” argued centrist senator Hervé Marseille. “Everyone will then turn again to the president. For me, dissolution means resignation.”
Resigning (Likelihood: 1/10)
Macron has always ruled out this possibility, but in the eyes of public opinion he appears as the main person responsible for the political crisis shaking the country. Two-thirds of French citizens say they would support the president’s departure.
LFI leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon has been calling for Macron’s resignation for months. And some voices from within the governing coalition parties – notably among the Republicans – have now joined the call.
A resignation by Macron, however, appears highly improbable as it would indelibly stain his legacy. Should he nevertheless choose this option, it would also cast doubt over the future of France’s Fifth Republic – conceived by Charles de Gaulle with a strongman president at its head. But we are not there yet.
Elisa Braun contributed reporting.
(vc)
